RMB limit again today

RMB against the U.S. dollar from Tuesday for the second consecutive trading day fluctuations in daily touch lower limit of the range because investors in China's central bank will allow the yuan to further depreciation of the dollar is expected to promote the increased demand. Traders expect the yuan next month, only slightly down, at the end of the yuan against the dollar to 6.9000 yuan at around. Around 0730 GMT, the dollar exchange market inquiry reported 6.8868 yuan, higher than Monday's close of 6.8848 yuan, after trading between 6.8721-6.8870 yuan RMB, the yuan hit against the fluctuations in the range limit. Bank of China provides that the U.S. dollar against the daily fluctuations of the RMB exchange rate band should not be higher or lower than the 0.5 percent rate. Tuesday dollar / yuan rate at 6.8527 yuan, slightly higher than Monday's 6.8505 yuan. However, the above-mentioned U.S. over the previous two trading days of sharp price rise 213 basis points. China's central bank has in the past two months, the yuan against the U.S. dollar will stabilize at around 6.8300 yuan, the central bank of the recent sharp increase in the U.S. market appears to be adopted by the Chinese Government wishes to the devaluation of the Renminbi to boost economic signals. Dealers said trading Tuesday extremely quiet, as most banks are trying to buy dollars, the bank sold dollars are few. A Japanese bank in Shanghai, a dealer said some of the previous business profits will stay in China, hope to benefit from the appreciation of the RMB, the yuan, but now the trend of turning point occurred in these enterprises started to buy dollars, at least some of the sources of demand for dollars Here. Dealers also said that the dollar / yuan non-deliverable forward rate swap market and the territory of the exchange rate spread between dollar also prompted a rise in demand. A US-funded banks in Shanghai, a dealer said on the inside and offshore forward rate for the carry trade is almost bodies to make the banks to buy dollars. As the non-deliverable forwards than the spot rate forward rate premium is higher than premium, the agency can sell non-deliverable forwards at the same time in the territory of the market to buy dollars forward, so that almost no risk of the return . Recently, to further expand the premium, as a result of the market to digest the extent of the devaluation of the yuan is expected to increase. Taking into account the swap market in China than in more long-term market liquidity, institutions often use foreign exchange swaps for arbitrage, which increased the cash market, the demand for dollars. Offshore market, 1-year dollar / yuan non-deliverable forwards reported 7.2900/7.3100 RMB yuan, higher than Monday's trading RMB yuan 7.2500/7.2800. The territory of the market, at about 0730 GMT, the dollar against the RMB exchange rate premium for long-term 920/1180, higher than Monday's close at 760/1000.

How to deal with renminbi Obama

Obama to win the background of the Afro-American history's most controversial presidential election does not mean that the United States from 4 to start the change has embarked on the road. For the Americans, the choice of Obama means change. Of the world, Obama is likely to mean that variable. American conservatism from liberalism to the left-leaning changes in the world, especially in the field of international trade and finance bring a lot of uncertainties. Many people look forward to Obama as his predecessors as Franklin D. Roosevelt launched the New Deal, perhaps people can look forward to becoming a reality, and during the recession of the New Deal Obama also will be a mark of Keynesian Economics. However, uphold the protection of labor interests of the traditional values of the Democrats, Barack Obama, in the rescue of the U.S. economy is on the road to reform will regain the arms trade protectionism, I am afraid that no one kept in the dark. Chinese media comments that Obama will be faced with three major economic problems, that is, economic recession and financial reconstruction policy toward China. Chinese in the world, the third question may be crucial. Obama in the general election in the process of making China's exchange rate card, whether the election drama in the line or the bottom of their hearts reveal the true feelings can only be answered by Obama himself. There is no doubt that both the Republican or the Democratic Party in China at the strategic level, it should not be a big change in policy the new president of the largest variables trade policy toward China is the main choice. Obama clearly opposed to the US-South Korea Free Trade Agreement has been the attitude of Koreans caused unease, a sense of unease and this will naturally be transmitted to the Chinese people. It seems to me that Obama will be in power after making sure of the RMB exchange rate card, but not the power. Obama on many occasions during the campaign criticized the Chinese exchange rate manipulation through access to the U.S. trade interests, we are no stranger to this kind of talk, China and the United States in recent years, the number of trade conflicts, RMB exchange rate issue has become a focus of conflicts The RMB appreciation has been urging the voice, in fact, the U.S. labor groups and manufacturing interests of the Group of the concentrated expression. In as U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson, the United States on China's exchange rate pressure has eased. The reason for this is, on the one hand, China is in response to inflationary pressures had taken the initiative to speed the pace of RMB appreciation, on the other hand, Paulson is in China's interest shifted to Wall Street's concern about China's capital market openness. At that time, I wrote that comment, Paulson appears to be concerned about the financial problems when he is a good theory of trade experts, because in order to see his perspective, the United States in terms of trade are the comparative advantages of financial services. Therefore, Paulson has been forced to abandon the yuan to appreciate, in turn urged China to speed up opening up the capital market. Today, when the power dial to Obama, the Democratic Party in the trade policy will return to the cognitive aspects of the manufacturing sector. U.S. manufacturing sector to stimulate growth in the working class is not only a political return, but also inhibit economic recession effective weapons. Against this background, Obama will re-license the exchange rate play, and the initial ruling, the request for further yuan appreciation. But this time he also has time, when the U.S. labor groups and manufacturers to put pressure on the RMB exchange rate is also said to be scant Shichuyouming today, the nominal exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar has appreciated by 17.5 percent, and continue to maintain the trend of appreciation In this context, and then continue to put pressure on the RMB exchange rate, the reasons are not strong enough. To some extent, the political element of the show, I am afraid to be more than economic interests. In view of the Chinese yuan in export industries, as well as the U.S. economy into recession, has been a serious impact on exports to the United States will inevitably slow down. As a result, in the future Sino-US trade talks, China also increased bargaining chips. In response to the global financial crisis, the United States is also seeking to China, if China increases investment in the United States, the United States will further reduce the deficit. China and the United States trade policy game, the U.S. focus on trade, which would require the revaluation of the RMB, China's focus in investment in the United States that is open in the field of investment. In short, Obama on the issue of the RMB exchange rate can not be accounted for cheap natural that China should calm them. Obama's pursuit of changes in Sino-US trade issues should be changes.

Obama for the RMB to bring new variables

47-year-old Obama was elected the first black U.S. president, the future direction of the yuan would have a new variable, or renminbi revaluation will accelerate the resumption of the road. "For China, the only suspense about Obama is that the RMB exchange rate issue," Citibank Asia-Pacific chief economist Yiping Huang told the "Financial Weekly", "next year if the U.S. economy from further deterioration, in particular the increase in unemployment rate , The yuan will be created intense pressure. " This is because, from Obama's Democratic Party, traditionally supporters of the mostly blue-collar, and the close relationship between the union and therefore the Democratic Party has the political tendency of trade protectionism. During the election campaign, Obama's protectionist voices very clear. According to the President of the United States in the past few sessions to observe the election, the new president came into office, usually to curry favor with voters to abandon some of the commitments, and towards more open and pragmatic policy, many experts predict that Obama will continue to adhere to the multi-left government's free trade . Once the United States suffered a severe unemployment problem, to choose will be much more complex, the issue of the RMB exchange rate might be the primary objective. Because the revaluation of the yuan could ease the huge U.S. trade deficit with China, thus more job opportunities to stay in the United States. On a sharp appreciation of the RMB against the backdrop that the huge U.S. trade deficit with China, the U.S. Treasury Department on many occasions to China a "currency manipulator", thus the political and trade on China to exert pressure on the multiple. If the future of the United States can not quickly recover from the financial crisis, with past practice it is very likely re-meng. However, the continued appreciation of the yuan, a sharp appreciation of the choice of flat or rise, but also depends on China. Huang Ping believe that the relatively stable Sino-US relations, economic and trade relations between the relatively more mature, and China's growing strength in China's bargaining power is enhanced. This means that China may not be under pressure to choose their own very detrimental to the sharp appreciation. Shun Gao Shanwen, chief economist of the Securities said, Obama will be the last extension of previous U.S. government's approach toward China, as Sino-US relations over the past decade the game again. "Fundamentally speaking, Sino-US relations based on the interests and power-based game, no matter who the president will not deviate from the current pattern." He said China in the global economy and the impact of the rising strength of competition, this is the basic foundation for the strategic pattern. In addition, China has nearly 2 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves, as well as huge trade surpluses which have allowed China to the United States have a significant impact can not be ignored. This means that the RMB against the U.S. dollar will have a greater voice. In addition to the RMB exchange rate issue, the status of the RMB is also the United States will face a major problem. "The rise of China and the rise of the yuan, is bound to international economic, financial redistribution of the right to speak, as well as redistribution of interests. Obama may be the first to really address this problem President of the United States." Gao Shanwen said.