Convertible four combat skills

Sometimes the stock market is like a battlefield, not always the right or wrong, only a clear understanding of the situation and adjust the train of thought, and the advantage of the opportunity for, is the winning way. This article is based on the premise of the market after a strong and powerful, positive attitude, choose to make this stock, convertible into and to take advantage of, targeted move, little else. Basic views are as follows: First, in order to replace the weak stock has been in the hands of a strong held shares We will share the stage more or less divided by the trend of birth, development, aging, which can be divided into the development phase starts, the rapid development period, after the development period. When holding the hands of the chips have been completed or master, has entered a period after the development, that is to say, the upside has been cleared of energy, but in accordance with the inertia remains a powerful, is actually to falter. Be distributed at this time, and the choice of access to birth is in a period of relatively weak stocks, life will pass the baton, which is to maintain long-term benefit of a positive method of winning. Second, with a strong replacement in the hands of shares held by a strong stock Both stocks are strong, but are at different stages, which is just about to start a view to entering the period of rapid growth, with strong vitality; the latter by the rapid development period is about to or have entered a period after the development of the energy is about to have been cleared But also maintained a spurt of inertia. At this time of the convertible, as if from a slowdown has begun to train jumped on a train speed at the beginning, the future, of course, at a glance. Under normal conditions, people must have been profitable under the premise of do not want to chase the other must have the same or of the stock, such Huanchou on the way to overcome the requirements Wei Gao psychological barrier. The so-called heart disease but also cured by the medicine, a solution can be psychologically originally held by the profit share of the profits from new entrants into the stock, so the price is relatively low share of profits is also preserved. This is the kind of mental self-adjustment, rather than self-deception, in order to win but to take positive means. Third, the weak stock shares to replace the vulnerable in a strong market, the market will be a period of repair. In the relatively Ruoshi, most of the stock performance will be dull. At this point the convertible, is no longer in the hands of the future of the vulnerable stock exchange into a promising future of vulnerable stocks, into the a, the prospects for the future is a huge difference: in the former Ruoshi, like freedom Drop, fall into the abyss, and even beyond redemption by. Even if the market strength in the market as a whole may not be in an excellent performance; the performance of the latter is yet to know the limits, it will not ripe for a short period of time and significantly disadvantaged, but have finally bottomed out and make a U-turn, to strong One day. Fourth, in order to shake-up is not strong we are advocating, or even to oppose the idea of an operation in the stock market in most people's thinking is to accept the elimination of the weak and strong. However, the development of the dialectical point of view, today's strong tomorrow may be weak, the vulnerable might be transformed into strength. Perhaps the ultimate outcome may be Hengjiang strong, but under the circumstances strong buy shares, which is about to short-term weakness will offset the risk of holding shares in itself vulnerable small profit, so profit in the state have been offered The hold-up was bad luck. If this line of thought throughout, the vicious cycle of the situation, step by step passive.

The stock bottomed out seven characteristics

At the end of the market is often very difficult to find. Technology to send people like to use a variety of technical analysis and indicators to measure the results are not necessarily accurate, because the stock market itself in foreseeable unpredictable and too many things, such as the unexpected news or policy intervention, such as stock index and weight Shares of force, and so on, will be able to price changes. In practice, the initial stock price bottomed out in general the following seven basic characteristics: 1, long-term trend line and gradually slow to change. Experienced long-term decline, the stock began to change or is a record low, and its basic characteristics is continuing to occur volume, followed by gradually moving away on the 30th level, and other short-term bond repeatedly average daily trading of the scarce light, the people of To watch the loss of surface meaning, the power failure was down. 2, bets the sale of rare, Fu Chou reduction. Cost close to the market, a lot of buying a stock and sell a widening gap between the price of many stocks for a few minutes, ten minutes without Buying and selling, shares a day or even less popular only a few hands of the transaction. 3, the stock price into a relatively stable market environment, the stock is no longer continue to fall, stock price often small yin-yang of small, generally in the range of intraday volatility of about 25, such a long time is a few months or half a year Short-term visitors have no opportunity to operate, until one day, the new funds to start the main concern quietly in a planned and step-by-step strategic positions. First, gradually moving upwards in the short term, pre-and long-term pressure on the line, such as 30 and 60 on average have been overcome, that the current main point of the believer, dare to do more. 4, long-term technical indicators are up Jin Cha. In particular, KDJ, and other important indicators, Zhou K, on-line. Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares almost 19 years ago, Zhou K, on-line combination, the general indicators up in a negative close, and then re-Jin Cha took place up, often near the end of history, and its accuracy is higher than any analysis of the Value, mainly because of the long-term targets across for a long time and almost no major changes can be easily and about at this time, the market could be considered for the parties to mobilize funds into the market to prepare them to do more. 5, to improve the face of macroeconomic, monetary and economic policy of leniency, the warming of the economic cycle, the market liquidity. For example, 1992,1997 and 2007, the big bull market from these policies arising from the context. 6, shares began to focus on chips. At least 4 in a row in the financial statements can be found, the outstanding shares of chip stocks continue to divide, and then a new financial statements can be found in the average rate of increase in shareholding, shareholders began to reduce shares outstanding, that really began to collect funds main bargaining chip That the main force of the current stock price, as well as at the bottom of the form of recognition. 7, taking into account the full circulation period to reduce the size of the non-historical and new problems, I also feel the need to add a measure that is at least the size of the non-stock and limited lifting of the ban the sale of shares more than 70% of the shares of supply and demand balance is not And then there are other forces to suppress the stock price.

Which have long-term investment value of the stock?

Since the beginning of the end of October, I mentioned that "a small number of stocks with long-term investments (rather should be" speculative ") values," has many friends know, but it was still a recent letter from the inquiry, which is in the end? The answer is: investment-related stocks. The State Council yesterday released dozens of stimulating domestic demand measures to further strengthen the investment value of the plate (in the stock market last Friday when a sudden drop in the state by large one-up, that is, "foresee" in the operation, they will always be the stock market The Invincible General). Short positions can be concerned about this information. In fact, I already expressed in articles, for example, the Government of railways and roads to increase the investment, many investors have an implicit understanding. Promote economic development Troika: consumption, investment and exports. China's distribution of wealth to tilt the government and enterprises, plus the widening gap between rich and poor (20% of the population possesses 80 percent of bank deposits), real consumption as the main money people (the consumption of the rich has been fully released), the stock market Was robbed, domestic demand is difficult to pull together; by the time the debt crisis, China's export growth declined, Obama came to power, at least initially, would limit Chinese exports, which means that the pessimistic outlook for exports. To maintain economic growth, the four road options: First, lower housing prices, high housing prices have been swallowed up by the release of the purchasing power. Second, establish and perfect the system of social security system so that people dare to spend. Third, the Government pay, cost-saving; large-scale tax cuts; to increase the income of ordinary people. Fourth, the government has increased investment, especially in the protection of investment in housing construction. The four at the same time, if so, China's economy will be able to quickly turn for the better. However, there can be no more such cases. Now analysis: Article I: Local Government and the developers have the same sexual interests, the Government can not save the market will be very difficult, where it will be down to the sense of housing prices? Government to be more willing to maintain the current high prices. Results: Government to give up, the volume of housing continued to slump. The second: a longer time-consuming, and the Government of the need to be stabilized quickly. In addition, the Government may want to. Results: The government will take a number of stimulating domestic demand, but more of a performance-based, is not fundamental, so the effect is limited. Third: the government's self-interest involved. Results: Government to give up. Article IV: increased investment, governments at all levels has always been a favorite not only an immediate impact, and project bidding process along with the opportunity to trade power for money, but also by officials like. Results: The investment to become the only option for the Government. Of course, such a major investment reflects the interests of the government. In fact, if a large-scale construction of low-cost Housing and affordable housing, economic development, the effect can be much better, can promote economic, but also to alleviate the people's housing concerns, do both. As a result, the Government has been on the railway 2,000,000,000,000 investment of Highway 5 trillion of investment. At the local level, you have to invest in the next few years ahead of schedule to do so now. In order to invest in large-scale government will issue treasury bonds, it is estimated that in 2009 the national debt will be more than 1,000,000,000,000 yuan. Can be expected: in times past, before the debt crisis, government investment will be the main theme. Government and investment-related (to long-term investment value of the size of the order): cement, concrete, steel (according to railway and highway-related selection of listed companies), construction machinery, such as the first choice, construction companies, engineering construction at the election (because of our construction category Lower corporate profits, even if the work was more successful, the proceeds may impressive). In addition, the resources oversold stocks also cause for concern (for example: the demand for cement and steel may be increased if the corresponding increase in coal demand). The election of its attention to the stock fundamentals and the sustainability of earnings, there can not be speculation, and other topics (Chinese shares can only be speculation forever), the pre-fallen too far and the good fundamentals of the stock can focus on. Jincang attention to the pace and the opportunity must not be blindly chasing. Even positive subjects, vested interests will continue to shuffle through, the shock following the looting of individual investors in order to maximize the pursuit of self-interest. In this regard, the current market investors should be aware of. In addition, the plate has a value of the investment does not mean that all the plates have a stock value of the investment, I am referring to "a small number of stocks." This requires investors to grasp. On the whole, the investment-related stocks at this stage is relatively safe. As the Chinese government's investment in the world is difficult to find a second similar case, the increased investment means that I have to judge a previous amendment in the future, China's stock market and the U.S. stock market will be separated out of the relative independence of the form, At the very least, reflected in the investment-related plate or so. The stock has nothing to do with investment in particular, there is pressure on the size of the sell-off of non-stock, as far as possible to avoid some of non Size positions cost less than 1 dime, 2 yuan to sell more than 19 times the profits, not to mention the 5 yuan, 8 The location of the yuan? Therefore, they have a chance to before fleeing. This is a constraint in China's stock market rebound effort of the important reasons. So: not only because of a cheap stock to buy it, but because it was bought up, because China's stock market can only be speculative ah! On the whole, I think, compared to domestic demand and exports (China's economic dependence on foreign high), investment-led forces continue to be limited, and government investment will further increase private investment in the compressed space, private investment can never be like Government investment in the competition, the most efficient private investment will be inhibited partially offset by the positive role of government investment. In addition, if the size of the non-problem is not solved, the real economy can not simply warming, it is still difficult for China's stock market out of the mire. Individual plates to be able to better does not mean that the overall good. On the whole, remains pessimistic about the prospects (in 2009 the risk of uncertainty, in particular large). Experienced a rebound, particularly in large-level rebound should Jiancang, such as kinetic energy fell after the release of the full purchase amount, to follow the rhythm of the market operation. This is a little experience, not as a basis for the transaction. Another: "The debt crisis meeting to change the world" (initial), about Nov. 20 all finished, than the original plan to postpone the time for half a month to add more sound and, at the same time to delete a lot of text, and strive to do To refining. (In 2008 the night of Nov. 9) By-laws: stimulating domestic demand, the State Council, the ten measures Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, November 9 - Premier Wen Jiabao chaired a State Council on the 5th executive meeting to study the deployment of further expanding domestic demand to promote stable and rapid economic growth. ... ... The meeting decided to further expand the current domestic demand and economic growth of ten measures. The first is to speed up construction of housing security. Increase support for building low-cost housing, squatter settlements speed up the transformation of nomads to settle in the implementation of the project, the repair of dangerous buildings in rural areas to expand the pilot. Second, to speed up infrastructure construction in rural areas. Marsh gas in rural areas increased, the safety of drinking water projects and rural highway construction, and improve the rural power network, such as South-North Water Transfer speed up the construction of major water conservancy projects and to reinforce dangerous reservoirs, strengthening the large-scale irrigation area. To increase poverty alleviation and development efforts. Third, speed up the railways, highways and airports and other major infrastructure. Focused on building a number of passenger lanes, Coal and Western Corridor rail line, improve the highway network, arranged in the central and western trunk line airport and airport construction, urban power grids. The fourth is to speed up health, culture and education development. The grass-roots level to strengthen the medical and health service system to help speed up the transformation of the rural junior high school, the central and western regions to promote special education schools and cultural construction of an integrated township. Fifth, to enhance the ecological environment. To speed up urban sewage and garbage treatment facilities and key water pollution control, focus on strengthening the protection forest and natural forest resources protection project in support of key energy-saving emission reduction projects. Sixth, speed up innovation and structural adjustment. Support the construction of high-tech industry and industrial technology, to support the development of the service industry. Seven is the earthquake-stricken areas to speed up reconstruction work. Eight is to improve the income of urban and rural residents. Next year to raise the minimum grain purchasing prices and improve the comprehensive agricultural subsidies, subsidies for seeds, agricultural subsidies, standards, and increase their income. To improve low-income groups, such as social security treatment target levels, in urban and rural low subsidies continue to increase the level of basic pensions of retirees entitled groups and subsistence allowances standard. Nine in all areas, the full implementation of all the industry value-added tax reform and restructuring to encourage technological upgrading of enterprises, reduce the burden on enterprises 120,000,000,000 yuan. Is the tenth increase the economic growth of the financial support. The lifting of commercial restrictions on the size of bank credit, a reasonable scale of credit expansion and increase its focus on engineering, the "three rural", small and medium enterprises and technological transformation, mergers and acquisitions of credit support, targeted training and consolidation of consumer credit growth. Preliminary estimated that the implementation of the project, by the end of 2010 to about 4 trillion yuan of investment. In order to speed up the construction progress, the meeting decided that the increase in the first quarter of this year, four arrangements of the Central 100,000,000,000 yuan of investment, next year ahead of time post-disaster reconstruction fund 200 billion, and the local community to promote investment, the size of the total reached 400,000,000,000 yuan.

Wait-and-see short positions is the best choice

October can be described as tragic decline in the two cities, the major index into the next two, with Shanghai Composite Index slumped 25.02 percent, hitting a new round of adjustment since the bear market, the largest decline! At the same time, also a record monthly decline in 14 years record! Can be described as appalling. And Friday last week, there can be a significant amount of shrinkage, only 25.9 billion Shanghai, and Shenzhen is only tens of billions. Market economy out of recession fears, making coal, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, iron and steel, and other commodity-type stocks become "disastrous." In comparison, medicine, food, medicine and flow of daily necessities such as the weak cyclical stock categories showed strong resilience in nature. Today is the first transaction in November, lifting the ban in November also ushered in a small peak. Total 163 billion shares in circulation was limited to the sale of shares, according to the October 28 closing price of the total market value of about 100,446,000,000 yuan, the market lifted the psychological pressure is not small. November is still the situation is not optimistic. The main aspects of capital flows, intellectual version of the T +1 agencies: Oct. 22 to appear 5 days a net outflow of funds, 29 and 30, two days into the small main funds. Up to 30, body positions 17.047%, the volume has been sluggish in the near future, the main flow of funds lesser extent, specific numerical data can be unless they view the map: (click picture to enlarge) To the main types of funds, respectively, to fund over the past 10 trading days was a small inflow of capital flows, the funding body T-type seats in the net capital movements are positive, but the amount is very small. The focus of monitoring capital outflow was mainly a look at the specific data under the statistical value map: (click picture to enlarge) Technical point of view, the market has been on K Line and land resumption Line 3 large, the emergence of the central line of fallen too far. Short-term trend, re-stock index last week to build a track for the next 1700, 1800 slightly track for the finishing platform. Stock form of running, basically subject to the 5 day average anti-shock down under pressure to run, still in the form of short-term decline, the market vulnerable to run the pattern has not been able to change. The market is still of low trading volume, market confidence in the serious shortage of funds over-the-counter hunters lack the will to do more serious lack of confidence, the market outlook is still not optimistic. 1800 as a breakdown by the end of the policy, wants to recover a great need to boost market sentiment. In order to reverse in the short term investors in the short way of thinking is not easy, short positions are still wait-and-see is the best choice. In the eight-line theory, there is a trend of trading rules, that is, only the right side of the transaction. The current market, I have been patiently waiting for the called short positions, to preserve the strength and patience to wait for the opportunity that this bear market is the best means of survival.

Historical experience has soared after the fall

Last week, the market did not belong to fill the gap Tiaokongdikai price patterns, this week will be a large gap in the most direct pressure on a purely technical point of view that the time to close this week to close the gap on the market only to have to do more The kinetic energy; in October on the line is ugly, a 94-year, the largest decline in history, is the fourth largest fall in the previous three have plummeted after a big rebound three times, two of which ushered in a reversal of the rise. Therefore, from a historical probability, that after the sharp fall in the line up next month, 100 percent probability, the reverse is also the possibility to reach 66.7 percent, and the two reversed after the fall of the prices are significant in the long-term slump, with the current Very similar to the situation. Then, weeks from the online optimistic do not see, from a purely on-line to see is not very optimistic, but not pessimistic point of view of historical experience. Therefore, the current situation can not be done blindly, but not blindly short, waiting for the appropriate technology to confirm the signal is more appropriate. This weekend there are two important messages: First, the central bank on loans to give up control. It should be said that this is the greatest good news, opening up a loan means that the funds will face tends to loosen, then the stock market will be relatively generous funding, funding from the surface of the stock market point of view, the supply of funds to support the stock market rose. However, the funds of funds, which only increased the potential market supply and also for the stock market depends on how the policy in the end. Second, the Margin in December will be allowed to apply. This is a big news, though not the details, but said that the financing should be greater than Rongquan, financing leveraged to the stock market should be able to bring a group of funds in the stock market stages so as to bring about improvement in supply and demand. But the question now is, financing brought about by the funds as well as the majority shareholder of the funds to buy back about whether the phased lifting of the ban with the size of the non-counter impulse. At present, the stock market, experience tells us not to blindly short, but the technology is no clear signal could be involved in so short a strategic point of view is not empty, observation-based, supplemented by small operating position, waiting for the uncertain market trends. Up: The key point this week, can recover in 1826, this month, the crucial point now is whether the recovery of 2000 points. Down: the recent strong support in the 1550 - 1600, was down again on May 8, 2006 and May 9 for the formation of the two-point gap in 1497 and 1444 points.

Short-term rebound could continue the momentum?

The good news in today's market and the Asia-Pacific rose to stimulate the stock market, the emergence of a rebound increase in the trend. In a significant boost in the afternoon heavyweights, the success of the stock index crossed the line 5 to suppress. To close, the market rose 43 points, or 2.55 percent, technically a folder of a yin-yang two movements. Shortly after the market will continue to recover? Positive results can continue to cut interest rates for how long? News last night there were three main positive: First, the central bank to cut interest rates again, deposit and loan interest rates have come down 0.27 percentage points; Second, the Securities and Futures Commission to clarify the rumors Margin trial postponed; Third, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission put out a call for the city-owned insurance information. From the news, the market today, in apparent good condition, but the index slightly higher in early trading after the open, there is a trend of decline, which had turned green, making the market trend today is full of fear. However, in Hong Kong stocks opened under the influence of the market has embarked on a more strong upside trend. As a result, the trend of the market today, in essence, is more subject to up to stimulate the stock market in the Asia-Pacific. From the disk performance, the market turned green in the early moments of the crisis, led to Datong Coal Industry collective rise of coal plates, Kailuan shares to a new country Yang, Lu'an, and so on can ring were among the biggest gainers; plate in the coal under the strong stimulus to Sichuan Cast led by the energy of the new energy sector also rose to follow; this market turn red and most of the morning launched an attack; later colored tin plate in the trading of shares also stimulated an attack. On the whole, the morning market mainly by coal, petrochemical, energy, non-ferrous metals such as a major resource stocks as do multi-tasking. Open afternoon in Hong Kong stocks to stimulate strong, the market re-interpretation of the Tuesday opening of the show soared, China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec, Baosteel, China Merchants Bank, Shanghai Pudong Development, CITIC Securities, and so a big boost single-movement, of which China is more safe Rapid trading is sealed. Conch Cement was also followed by a strong trading. From the market trend in the afternoon, mainly with the weight of AH shares index rose sharply due to shares. The reason why these stocks rose, with shares owned in Hong Kong stocks rose crazy about. In that case, the market will follow the Hong Kong equity market outlook continues to rise it? Short-term rebound could continue this momentum? From the market trend to see this day, A shares are basically following the rebound in the stock market in the Asia-Pacific. Hong Kong stocks from the current trend, its strong resistance at the 15,500-point line, from the time of the location, there are about 10% of the space. If the U.S. stock market continues to maintain a pattern of a rebound, while the domestic news continues to warm weather, short-term Hong Kong stocks are likely to continue to rebound. Hong Kong stocks remain strong as long as the trend, A shares would not appear too weak trend. Also, from a technical perspective, this market has for the first time last points on the 5th line on K map also has a two-folder yin-yang of the offensive movements, 30 minutes K Line also showed that there are short-term potential continue to rebound. As a result, the current policy as long as the surface remained warm weather, the market is expected to be in position to maintain the current trend of bottom oscillation. And as long as 5 take the line that once-in with the new good news, the market will likely continue to rebound. Gold Rush-off of the view that a strong rebound in the market trend today, on the one hand, is a positive factor for the rate cut, mainly due to soaring stock; A shares currently have a short-term technical signs stabilized, if the surface shortly after the policy is still warm weather, Hong Kong Remains a strong rebound in share structure, then the A shares is expected to continue the pattern of short-term rebound.