2008年11月2日星期日

British Prime Minister Brown is expected Bank of England will cut interest rates further


Gulf countries are visiting British Prime Minister Tony Brown 2, said that in view of the current international market of crude oil and food prices, the Central Bank of England is expected to follow the trend of the Bank of England will take measures to further cut interest rates. Bank of England will be held on the 6th regular meeting of monetary policy, widely expect the meeting will likely cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 4%. Brown said the recent Bank of England has cut interest rates twice, he could not forecast the Bank of England on the 6th of specific decisions, but he believes that oil and food commodity prices fall so that the rate cut has become a global trend. At present, the spread of the global financial crisis, concern and the financial crisis hit the real economy and increase the risk down the world economy, countries have pledged to take measures to cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth and the current commodity prices central banks also lowered interest rates The feasibility of an increase. The latest Office for National Statistics show that in the third quarter of Britain's GDP over the previous 0.5 percent decline in the first quarter, which is in the past 16 years Britain's economy contracted for the first time. Analysts expect crude oil prices in the international market as the significant downturn in the Bank of England may cut interest rates to stimulate the economy.

South Korea supplementary budget next year will be about 10 trillion won to stimulate the sluggish economy


3, the South Korean government announced that next year will be about an additional 10 trillion won (about 7,740,000,000 U.S. dollars) budget to help stimulate the weak domestic economy, reduce the financial crisis on the impact of low-income people. Yonhap quoted government officials as saying that the decision was in the evening of 2 South Korean government and ruling party held a policy consultation meeting. The new budget will be integrated into the wide-ranging series of measures to stimulate the economy, the South Korean government will soon announce these measures. South Korean Ministry of Finance submitted to Congress before next year's draft budget, a total of 274,000,000,000,000 won. With the financial crisis on the Korean impact on the real economy became increasingly obvious that Korea has to increase expenditure budget calls growing louder and louder.

China into the global financial system should be an important part of the

London School of Economics and Political Science Howard Dean Davis in a recent Xinhua News Agency reporters Zhuan Fang and Shi Biaoshi, taking into account China's economic and financial status of the West have been impossible without taking into account the situation in China will manage the global financial system. Former President of the British Financial Supervisory Authority, the Bank of England Deputy Governor and the President of the Confederation of British Industry said Davis, currently in the financial world in the field of the most influential is the G-7 or G-8, China was not included . In addition, China is not the main pool of financial regulators, "the Financial Stability Forum," and the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision Committee. Now the above-mentioned organizations and institutions of the financial crisis facing the challenges that they will have to consider include China. In his view, the global financial system is interconnected than ever closer, China is by no means be no global financial crisis, but also China itself has made it very clear understanding of this issue. He said that at present China's financial system is very good, banking supervision is also structured, but in the interest rates, and so there may be more flexible. Securities and Futures Commission: The capital market is fully committed to maintaining stability in oil 600,000,000 spent to buy back the Hong Kong dollar H shares, said experts Margin business year, Huawei introduced to the difficult country for a transfer of accounts receivable line [of reform] Loushu: 30 years of changes in the history of residential The rich history of map making speculation that the 30 years of rural reform is expected to Davis, the current financial crisis in 2010, is not really the end, the real economy to the global impact will be very serious and far-reaching. He said that the Bank of the most important thing is to rebuild capital reserves, which will take some time, and in the process, the bank is reluctant to call colleagues, they were reluctant to lend to companies and individuals. In his view, in fact, the company did not borrow too much demand because many companies do not want at this time to invest in and expand the scale of operation. As it is expected that housing prices continue to fall, the real estate market, the buyers will of the individual is not high. Therefore, neither the current credit market supply and no demand.

Wait-and-see short positions is the best choice


October can be described as tragic decline in the two cities, the major index into the next two, with Shanghai Composite Index slumped 25.02 percent, hitting a new round of adjustment since the bear market, the largest decline! At the same time, also a record monthly decline in 14 years record! Can be described as appalling. And Friday last week, there can be a significant amount of shrinkage, only 25.9 billion Shanghai, and Shenzhen is only tens of billions. Market economy out of recession fears, making coal, petrochemical, non-ferrous metals, iron and steel, and other commodity-type stocks become "disastrous." In comparison, medicine, food, medicine and flow of daily necessities such as the weak cyclical stock categories showed strong resilience in nature. Today is the first transaction in November, lifting the ban in November also ushered in a small peak. Total 163 billion shares in circulation was limited to the sale of shares, according to the October 28 closing price of the total market value of about 100,446,000,000 yuan, the market lifted the psychological pressure is not small. November is still the situation is not optimistic. The main aspects of capital flows, intellectual version of the T +1 agencies: Oct. 22 to appear 5 days a net outflow of funds, 29 and 30, two days into the small main funds. Up to 30, body positions 17.047%, the volume has been sluggish in the near future, the main flow of funds lesser extent, specific numerical data can be unless they view the map: (click picture to enlarge) To the main types of funds, respectively, to fund over the past 10 trading days was a small inflow of capital flows, the funding body T-type seats in the net capital movements are positive, but the amount is very small. The focus of monitoring capital outflow was mainly a look at the specific data under the statistical value map: (click picture to enlarge) Technical point of view, the market has been on K Line and land resumption Line 3 large, the emergence of the central line of fallen too far. Short-term trend, re-stock index last week to build a track for the next 1700, 1800 slightly track for the finishing platform. Stock form of running, basically subject to the 5 day average anti-shock down under pressure to run, still in the form of short-term decline, the market vulnerable to run the pattern has not been able to change. The market is still of low trading volume, market confidence in the serious shortage of funds over-the-counter hunters lack the will to do more serious lack of confidence, the market outlook is still not optimistic. 1800 as a breakdown by the end of the policy, wants to recover a great need to boost market sentiment. In order to reverse in the short term investors in the short way of thinking is not easy, short positions are still wait-and-see is the best choice. In the eight-line theory, there is a trend of trading rules, that is, only the right side of the transaction. The current market, I have been patiently waiting for the called short positions, to preserve the strength and patience to wait for the opportunity that this bear market is the best means of survival.

Historical experience has soared after the fall


Last week, the market did not belong to fill the gap Tiaokongdikai price patterns, this week will be a large gap in the most direct pressure on a purely technical point of view that the time to close this week to close the gap on the market only to have to do more The kinetic energy; in October on the line is ugly, a 94-year, the largest decline in history, is the fourth largest fall in the previous three have plummeted after a big rebound three times, two of which ushered in a reversal of the rise. Therefore, from a historical probability, that after the sharp fall in the line up next month, 100 percent probability, the reverse is also the possibility to reach 66.7 percent, and the two reversed after the fall of the prices are significant in the long-term slump, with the current Very similar to the situation. Then, weeks from the online optimistic do not see, from a purely on-line to see is not very optimistic, but not pessimistic point of view of historical experience. Therefore, the current situation can not be done blindly, but not blindly short, waiting for the appropriate technology to confirm the signal is more appropriate. This weekend there are two important messages: First, the central bank on loans to give up control. It should be said that this is the greatest good news, opening up a loan means that the funds will face tends to loosen, then the stock market will be relatively generous funding, funding from the surface of the stock market point of view, the supply of funds to support the stock market rose. However, the funds of funds, which only increased the potential market supply and also for the stock market depends on how the policy in the end. Second, the Margin in December will be allowed to apply. This is a big news, though not the details, but said that the financing should be greater than Rongquan, financing leveraged to the stock market should be able to bring a group of funds in the stock market stages so as to bring about improvement in supply and demand. But the question now is, financing brought about by the funds as well as the majority shareholder of the funds to buy back about whether the phased lifting of the ban with the size of the non-counter impulse. At present, the stock market, experience tells us not to blindly short, but the technology is no clear signal could be involved in so short a strategic point of view is not empty, observation-based, supplemented by small operating position, waiting for the uncertain market trends. Up: The key point this week, can recover in 1826, this month, the crucial point now is whether the recovery of 2000 points. Down: the recent strong support in the 1550 - 1600, was down again on May 8, 2006 and May 9 for the formation of the two-point gap in 1497 and 1444 points.

A blessing if the financial crisis

Does not exist not the origin of the crisis, no not the future direction of the crisis. Crisis caused confusion in many people are still figuring out how to overcome the crisis, some people began mapping out ways to get advantages in crisis. There is a phenomenon worth noting is that the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates forced to deal with liquidity crisis, the U.S. dollar cut into the channel, while the U.S. dollar against major currencies has continued to rise, in a normal market environment, the reasons for this phenomenon difficult to obtain adequate Explained that in the current financial crisis, this phenomenon can only country with the conscious act together. Only during the crisis of the U.S. dollar will remain in order to allow the world to maintain confidence in the currency against the U.S. dollar, will be those who are weak sales of treasury bonds to China, Japan, Saudi Arabia and other U.S. forces were under the control of the economy, a strong dollar at this point in time Other than at any time's good for America. To stay away from the financial crisis, the best way is there before the crisis to avoid predictability. In 1993 China carried out exchange rate reform, the initiative to allow the renminbi devaluation in the case, the facts have showed that the devaluation of the currency that is the only achievement of China's exports of consumer goods global hegemony, the achievements of the difficult challenges of today's "world factory" status from Significantly improved China's international balance of payments, China's foreign exchange reserves since then has become a great power, and resulted in one of the most immediate benefits, and that is fortunate enough to successfully avoid the Asian financial crisis, and even the ability to help Just return to the motherland of Hong Kong from greater impact. If you can not do the best, then be able to leverage the crisis in the force, shift the risk in a timely manner, and for the financial crisis in order to make their own arrangements is the second-best approach. The financial crisis, many scholars come to different conclusions, many people start to the financial derivatives exist questioned the rationale for, they did not know if the United States would not subordinated to the sales all over the world, the United States financial institutions The loss is much, so far, in a Wall Street mess, with problems of financial institutions, the U.S. real economy although the impact has begun to show, but compared to the collapse of the property market due to the effect remains limited. The reality is that the United States on the pattern of global financial arrangements, we should not suspect that the United States market, many of the acts of purpose, of course, it is now, Kusangzhuolian for us to buy their bonds, then, should we succumb? Western leaders changed Tibet and human rights issues on China's hostile attitude to China with one voice to sing carols, the United States, Deputy Finance Minister said that even Rouma to China for allies in order to allow China to get out of tickets. Should we succumb? British Prime Minister Tony Brown last week and should be, and China in the IMF to contribute generously to help rid the world of the crisis. As a big country, we deserved to do a big country. However, the rescue package is not a moral issue but an economic problem, do not need the Western world in a very utilitarian approach to ask the Chinese capital to rescue the market, China must in the current situation under the current situation and future in the interest of the appropriate , As the Americans a few years ago forced Chinese RMB appreciation, yes, we can appreciate, but according to what kind of appreciation of the beat is our own thing, which is China's own interest, but if the United States People walking the beat, it is entirely the interests of the American arrangements. Fortunately, we should not have early on opening the capital account convertibility of the renminbi, which we survived at least two global and regional financial crisis. We should be glad that the first few years of dollar depreciation began, China has begun to make the alert, otherwise China's foreign exchange reserve has long been more on dollar-denominated assets, China should also be glad that four years ago we carried out by the joint-stock reform of the banking sector , Is that restructuring, divestiture of a large number of non-performing assets from Huijin capital injection from its financial market have huge amounts of money, which of the three major Chinese state-owned commercial banks and other joint-stock commercial banks are still adequate to deal with economic assets adequacy ratio Depression, which is in a liquidity crisis, on the verge of bankruptcy in the West Bank in sharp contrast, about four years ago, China's banking industry by Western economists as a technical bankruptcy. It is often said that there are people stupid stupid blessing. Over the years the Americans to do the Wanhua Yang, the Chinese people and honestly engage in construction, financial affairs as a matter of fact do not have too much, but some things just part, but there are days old to take care of. At present, and a variety of choices before us. China must understand that we need to present what do we gain? How to manage the RMB exchange rate? Foreign exchange reserves, how? The financial sector in order to open attitude to what? How to face the temptation of international assets? All these, we need a future-oriented strategic perspective. We hope that the 5-year or even 10 years later, the Chinese government is currently still in a crisis do feel lucky, but we can not hope that it has been as lucky, a lot of things may need to be more clear than in the past and operation of the train of thought.

2008年11月1日星期六

U.S. stocks closed higher Friday founding 21 years ago this month, the largest decline


U.S. stocks closed higher Friday to end the turmoil in the transaction this month, this month is the U.S. 21 years ago one of the worst. With a growing number of investors looking for undervalued stocks, the major indexes sharply higher Friday. The Dow rose 1.6 percent, the Nasdaq rose 1.3 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 1.5 percent. Oaktree Asset Management chief investment officer Robert - Pavlik (Robert Pavlik), "as a result of the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of Finance adopted a series of measures to inject the financial system, has been to restore the confidence of investors. These measures have thawed the credit market And the commercial paper market to gradually return to normal. " Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke in prepared remarks that the crisis in the market, the Government of the need for government-sponsored enterprises such as the two houses to provide debt guarantees. He also proposed a variety of home loans in the next feasible way. He said that "even if the other two rooms to take the organizational structure of the U.S. government will continue to be based on their current organizational structure of the bonds issued to provide strong protection." The Bush administration is considering to issue mortgages to help provide security to some 300 million families from losing their homes. The Government is also considering a five-year period to lower mortgage lending rates, and other solutions. The Commerce Department report on U.S. consumer spending in September fell 0.3 percent, a drop of the new four-year high. September Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 37.8, much lower than the 48.0 analysts expected. But by the end of October University of Michigan consumer sentiment index to 57.6, slightly better than market expectations of 57.5. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen said the bank could lower U.S. interest rates, but he did not rate this year, the right to vote. New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures trading in the day most of the time down to maintain the momentum, but in the temporary closing ago made all of a sudden, prices turned higher. December delivery crude oil futures rose 1.85 U.S. dollars to close at 67.81 U.S. dollars a barrel, or 2.8 percent, the contract was trading down 4.3 percent. This month, crude oil futures were down 32.6 percent, the largest decline in history. U.S. stocks hit 21 years ago this month, the largest decline As of the close (4:00 am Beijing time), the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 144.32 points to close at 9325.01 points, or 1.57 percent. This week, the Dow has risen 11.3 percent this month were down 14.1 percent. Led financial shares, JP Morgan rose 9.7 percent. Standard & Poor's 500 index rose 14.66 points to close at 968.75 points, or 1.54 percent. The index has gained 10.5 percent this week, this month were down 16.9 percent. Standard & Poor's 10 major industries of telecommunications services in the plate, the essential consumer goods and financial sector were among the biggest gainers. The Nasdaq composite index rose 22.43 points to 1720.95 points, or 1.32 percent. Nasdaq this week were up 10.9 percent this month were down 17.7 percent. Pavlik said that the "prudent investor, I continue to recommend medical and bulk goods, such as defensive stocks such as Johnson & Johnson, Celgene, Procter & Gamble, Colgate Palmolive and Celgene." Oil giant Dow constituent stocks of Chevron (CVX) rose 0.6 percent, the company's third-quarter profit rose 114 percent, to 79 million. The Washington Post (WPO) rose 8.1 percent, the company's third-quarter profit dropped from 72,500,000 U.S. dollars to 10,300,000 U.S. dollars. Video game developer Electronic Arts (ERTS) fell 17.8 percent, the company reduced losses and increased the annual performance goals. Sun Micro (JAVA) also issued late Thursday reported fiscal, the company's loss in the first quarter of 1,680,000,000 U.S. dollars. Stock down 12.1 percent. Car plate to become the focus of one of the market today. According to Reuters, as a result of the Bush administration will not provide financing for General Motors, General Motors (GM) and Chrysler merger between the impasse. General Motors fell 4.6 percent. Yahoo (YHOO) fell 0.8 percent. According to "The Wall Street Journal" reported by the Ministry of Justice as a result of opposition from Yahoo and Google (GOOG) search advertising network between the co-operation may be stranded. Ministry of Justice Thursday said it would stop Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) to 28,000,000,000 U.S. dollars to buy Alltel Corp., Unless Verizon agreed to sell part of the 22 state-related assets. As a result of credit market conditions continue to improve, strong U.S. stocks rose Thursday. Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 189 points, S & P 500 rose 24 points, the Nasdaq composite index rose 41 points.