U.S. economy to shrink in the third quarter, the economic recession that has brought the possibility of further increases at the same time next Tuesday the upcoming presidential election before the Democratic Party has added a new political weapon. March 7-9 in the third quarter, due to the slowdown in consumer spending, the U.S. output of goods and services over the same period last year dropped 0.3 percent. From the data provided by the U.S. Department of Commerce, this is a period in the doldrums since the 2001 U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the quarter, the worst one. Economic activity accounted for more than 70 per cent of the total consumer spending in the third quarter over the same period last year decreased 3.1 percent for the first time in 17 years decline in 1980 is also the biggest drop since. These data indicate that this may be the next recession, economists identified as a serious downturn as early as possible in the period prior to the beginning of September, on the financial institutions closed down one after another, led to the freezing of loans. In the coming months, with the entire financial system continued to tighten lending terms and interest rates continue to rise, employers are expected to be massive layoffs, while consumers are likely to further belt-tightening. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco) Janet Yellen (Janet Yellen) Thursday said that recent economic data "is very worrying." In the face of a sharp deterioration in the economic situation, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cut interest rates this week, the benchmark by 50 basis points to 1%. Yellen said the economy in the fourth quarter is likely to look seriously. Economists expect output to decline this quarter, 3% more than in the first quarter of next year will continue to shrink. At present, the unemployment rate to 6.1 percent in the next few months are likely to rise to 7%, there are organizations forecast the unemployment rate before the end of next year will reach 8%. For all the world to rely on exports to the U.S. market, or to rely on the U.S. financial company's borrowing countries, the current economic downturn is bad news. Advertising continued weakness of the economy on the Republican presidential candidate John McCain (John McCain) and Republican congressional candidates in mind is a hit. In a recent, "The Wall Street Journal" / NBC News public opinion poll, 54 percent of registered voters said the economy was their most worried about, worried about more than any other issue voters are more than twice. In those surveyed, 49 percent of people think that the Democratic Party candidate Barack Obama (Barack Obama) are better at improving the economy, only 28% thought McCain on this issue better. Obama said Thursday, declining GDP, we are not accidents, but the Bush administration to the Wall Street financial institutions in the first place, and the general public will be placed at the end of a long-term policies lead to a direct consequence; McCain in the past 8 In this policy has been respected, and in the next four years to continue. McCain camp is so hard for its own economic problems used to reinforce McCain's point of view: Obama is a left-wing elements, to promote tax increases and spending his policy of the U.S. economy will exacerbate the problem. McCain's policy adviser Douglas Holtz • - Akin (Douglas Holtz-Eakin) said that these policies will increase the burden on the U.S. economy, so that our debt to future generations. U.S. Democrats are all over the big economic issues of the article, trying to blame the economic plight of the politically unpopular Bush administration. The new Congress and the president took office in January next year; the Democratic Party has been trying to persuade the Bush administration to support it in November before the introduction of a stimulus plan, and in the third quarter GDP data also provided a reason for the Democrats. To seek support for the Democratic Party has held several economic stimulus plans to once again put the Congress hearing: Thursday's meeting, the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee (Joint Economic Committee), vice chairman of the House of Representatives from New York Malone Nigeria (Carolyn Maloney) said that the introduction of the economic stimulus plan "without delay." Many Democrats hope that the Government will introduce a package of economic stimulus plan, including the Government in public infrastructure spending increase, to provide assistance to local governments, as well as increased unemployment and food stamps who receive assistance. Although the House of Representatives of the leaders of the Democratic Party has been looking at a scale of about 1,500 billion U.S. dollars package, but a number of outside economists have urged them to consider doubling the size of the increase. Support the introduction of the economic stimulus plan said that in order to alleviate the economic downturn, consumers face to ease the pressure on employment and middle-class workers to finance the construction business, there is a need to develop the plan. Although the White House has indicated no objection to the introduction of a second economic stimulus plan, but officials of the Democratic Party has raised most of the increase in government spending holding lukewarm attitude of the proposal. Lazar White House Council of Economic Advisers (Edward Lazear) Thursday said that the 700,000,000,000 U.S. dollars of financial aid plan at present is enough to stimulate the economy, as it is for the troubled credit markets, is a fundamental policy, not just the symptoms. Even if the re-introduction of an economic stimulus plan in the fourth quarter of the U.S. economy will not have any role in boosting. However, support for the launch of the plan say that the plan will help the U.S. economy out of recession early next year, and is likely to reduce the economic recession. With or without this economic stimulus plan, the current credit crisis will be expected to hit the U.S. economy, because credit card loans, auto loans and home mortgage lending standards will tighten the fight against American consumers. Since this summer, gasoline prices may drop sharply for the upcoming holiday shopping season off to eliminate a major impact on people's spending disadvantage. However, the worsening employment situation, the housing market to shrink, as well as the sluggish business investment may decline in oil prices more than offset the positive impact. GDP data released Thursday showed that U.S. economy has shown a general spreading. Residential investment ─ ─ including the construction of new homes, the expansion of old housing, as well as some of the sales of real estate investment ─ ─ dropped by 19%. Although third quarter business capital spending fell by only about 1%, but due to the weak market and the tightening of credit has indeed a very significant business feel that this expenditure is expected to be a greater decline in the fourth quarter. Although government spending in the third quarter increased by 5.8 percent, but because of the deteriorating economic situation, the expenditure is expected to be under increasing pressure. Third quarter net export growth, but the global economic slowdown has weakened the U.S. economy. May take a few months can only be determined down the current round of the U.S. economic recession began when. However, if two consecutive quarters of economic output decline in the indicators used to measure, in the fourth quarter of the U.S. economy may be in recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (National Bureau of Economic Research) business of the committee responsible for economic data to determine the starting and ending time of economic recession, but it has not yet given a formal characterization of the current round of economic downturn. The Committee to determine whether the economic recession will take into account the GDP, employment and other economic data, it does not output will be two consecutive quarterly decline as a necessary condition for economic recession. The committee mainly composed of academic economists, it is usually in the economy plunged into recession for several months after the recession officially announced the beginning of time. U.S. employment rate from January this year, began to decline in September to accelerate the present trend is expected over the next few months, the employment situation will continue to deteriorate. The overall U.S. economy in the fourth quarter of 2007 contracted 0.2 percent, some economists believe the current round of recession from the beginning of the fourth quarter of last year. So, the current economic recession in 1981-82 will be the economy has been dwindling since the longest time that it was a duration of 16 months, the unemployment rate reached 10.8 percent. The 2001 economic recession in 1990-91 and the duration is 8 months, but the recession caused by the impact of follow-up has continued for several years. As a result, the economic recession of the above date, even if the Commission announced the start of a recession, the recession may have for a long time before the end of the announced termination of a recession. The Conference Board (Conference Board) of Zhanuoweici economists (Victor Zarnowitz) said that although the U.S. economy has entered a recession, but is now talking about the severity of the economic downturn is still too early. He said that further credit tightening is likely the United States into a more serious recession, but for now this is still too early to judge.
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