2008年10月30日星期四

How the way in which the rate cut?


According to the People's Bank of China Web site: People's Bank of China decided on October 30, 2008 from financial institutions to cut the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans, one-year deposit interest rate from the current 3.87 percent down to 3.60 percent, down 0.27 percentage points; One-year benchmark lending rate from the current 6.93 percent down to 6.66 percent, down 0.27 percentage points; other grade deposit, loan interest rate adjusted accordingly. Personal housing accumulation fund loan interest rates unchanged. The adjustment of monetary policy is expected, however, carefully controlled, and it is different from the previous two, was taken just does not cut interest rates at the same time lower the bank reserve ratio, which is the impact on the stock market so much? Recently, various countries have cut interest rates further to speed up the cutting of Korea. We know that India and South Korea have recently announced a drastic cut, in particular, India is the first time in four years to cut interest rates, Korea is the second time this month to cut interest rates in the country and the largest in the history of actions to cut interest rates, coupled with Europe and the United States have dropped to Interest rate position, a new global round of rate cut expectations are still high. From the monetary policy to adjust the time and motivation, we are the external market after the rate cut "following the rate cut" shows that the policy is quite conservative attitude, from a different point of view, our country fully in control of economic entities Range. At the same time, did not reduce the bank reserve ratio, the management of monetary policy to adjust treatment left some room for "emergency." On the current economic situation, the government's relaxation of monetary policy and attitude of the measures is expected to continue further. The rate cut is a direct role in reducing financial costs, indirect enhance confidence in the market, but not the substance directly to a marked increase in money market liquidity. The monetary policy adjustment on the stock market, the impact is still very limited. The policy adjustment "feel good" index is unlikely to change the direction of the original run, this is a common phenomenon in the market one. If investors think that this is because of the adjustment policies arising from stock price on the head and at the bottom of the probability is very low, the real is at the bottom of the "natural". News of the bull market in stocks led to the emergence of a "Dikaigaozou" good news in the bear market is leading to "Gaokaidizou" in the past few years the trend of the A shares are in such a situation, for tomorrow the same stock It is difficult to break the routine. As a result, we have to deal with rational once again the rate cut will not have too high expectations. Today's management cut out for the main purpose or business conditions, is not specific to the securities market. From the purely on the stock market, timing is not good, I believe, yesterday's rebound in time may be a good time or a little later, when stock index fallen too far after a serious policies may achieve better results. At present, the situation on the stock, if tomorrow is still Gaokaidizou, the index is technically oversold condition of a certain ease, but also detrimental to the bottom short-term rebound. Investors are advised to wait and see to it mainly!

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