2008年11月23日星期日

At present, the stock market's three-game

Straddle the stock market in the ordinary course of only two sides, how can there be tripartite? Indeed, from the direct sale of the stock market behavior seems to be Straddle both sides of the struggle, and the strength and position of each other are converted - no more, and the air from beginning to end. The market can be interpreted by many factors. It seems to me that the stock may now be called the three forces in the game: to see one of the pressure of economic adjustment, the government saw the hand of expanding domestic demand side, as well as the industrial capital side. Perhaps this is rather vague concept, we are not good at learning, a variety of ideas always look at the market will not do any harm. Oh, with the following on the Road to join me in slowly. First, that economic pressure to adjust the party: well-known sub-loan from the financial crisis has been clearly transmitted to the economy especially in Europe and the United States and some foreign countries more obvious - such as South Korea, Iceland, Russia and so on. It is not hard to project the degree of dependence on external up to 60% of us, the impact is inevitable and natural entities, especially in the economic level, even more so. Reduce orders, receivables into a loss, rising costs, low value-added is likely to be the Achilles heel for the time being we are. As a typical manufacturing us that a large number of stock prices brought about by the loss is not small figures - in particular, it is facing reduced demand for raw materials and labor pains brought about by the decline can not be taken lightly. The increasing globalization of one succeeds will also be ruined loss for one of the current tendency to allow all countries on earth it is very difficult to stay out. The problem is that no one knows how long this situation? Will be the extent to which? Furthermore, we see that the Government hand side of expanding domestic demand: to re-sell, the faster it is clear that the characteristics of the government action, the figure 4 trillion more than it expected, together with local governments, private capital, banking and other aspects of the chain Reaction, we believe that this role can not pull the economy in the future. We have a broad hinterland, multi-level and the level of economic development, especially the large population of the working population as well as the high savings rate, nearly 2 trillion U.S. dollars of foreign reserve. . . These Tengnue our economy has provided a broad space. Finally, the industrial capital, said that the party: the size of the total non-fled as the sword hanging above the index, after all, has been in circulation and flow to be close to the ratio of 1:2. At the same time, these low-cost treatment of stock holders and attitude to the point of view we do not rely on the secondary market for these investments - in particular the growth performance of some of the hopelessness of the high valuation of the marginal shares (shares for three or four lines); on the other hand Some of the holdings of major shareholders even in the 2 Jupai market is also increasing. . . . . In fact, these three parties, will eventually be translated into both sides and Straddle position is not static. The problem is that in this situation before so complex that no one can see clearly. This short-term share price volatility can be corroborated - is clear evidence of short-term operation - Jipatakong people also fear that hold-up. They are not clear, as far as possible conservative investment strategy may be the best. Of course, the conservative does not mean waiting for the negative.

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