2008年11月15日星期六

China's financial summit in what role to play


Nov. 15, from the Group of Twenty of the world's financial leaders to participate in the summit to be held in Washington. Since World War II as the most important on the international financial order in the reconstruction of the meetings in 1944 and the Bretton Woods Conference that the difference is that this is not a United States hegemony in the international law level, given the legitimacy of the meeting, but a decline in the U.S. , The decline of U.S. hegemony of the times, to what kind of a new mechanism for response to international economic realities and the balance of power for global financial stability and security in the conclusion of a framework of the institutional structure of the meeting, known as the Bretton Woods Conference 21 version. As a representative of the emerging countries, Chinese President Hu Jintao to attend the concern that China put forward what kind of program to some extent, seems to be the evaluation of the success of the summit of the most important indicator of the value. The reason is very simple, as the world's largest, fastest growing economies in the emerging economies, China is sitting close to 2 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves, the money for the Global liquidity is clearly decisive. This is the first time the United States regards China as its ally, the EU has always been a change in the international arena curb China's influence in the strategy, encouraging China to play a "more important" role in the real reason. Perhaps this is rare in diplomatic history of China's financial grasp of so many of the initiative, is a decline in the dollar at a time when the old and the new weight for the new international financial rules of the right to speak at a crucial moment. The decline of the United States for the time being, Europe's unusual initiative, is committed to reforming the international financial order in China is an opportunity once in a blue moon, one in the world's most important showcase of the G-20 in voice and influence. In the United States, the European Union and emerging countries of the three main characters in the game, China's role will be to a large extent, about the game. At least not at this time Tao veiled light, a negative response, otherwise, created by the collapse of the dollar is by no means the yuan's rise, but the European powers to dominate. Of course, the Chinese what the specific plans, the fundamental starting point for our own interests, economic and diplomatic success of a big country like the demeanor in the face of China's Hu You will not intoxicated when there is no sense of illusion. First of all, the financial crisis in the United States despite the impact of great strength, although the decline of American hegemony, but the largest U.S. position and did not shake the foundation. GDP in the United States is the European Union, Japan and China, the sum of the three major economies, Japan's equivalent to three times, five times that of China. U.S. manufacturing sector, absolute and relative productivity are leading the world, the premier higher education, high technology, new materials, new energy, aerospace and many other areas of the world, but also as a political and economic systems are very good, The crisis in its ability to repair itself should not be lightly. This will decide our world for a long time will still be the world a dollar, the euro or the yuan, or try to destabilize him for the time being does not have the capital. Second, China's economic dependence on the United States far Yuanshen Yu Europe. China's foreign exchange reserves, more than 60% is dollar-denominated assets, the dollar's decline means that China can only assets shrink dramatically, it is clear we have to realize, but also the European Union, Japan and other countries willing to see. So, in terms of short-term, China and the United States interests is clear that Europe redundant. Third, as the world's largest emerging countries, China's position in the International Monetary Fund does not respond China's soft power. At present, the International Monetary Fund's voting rights mainly in the hands of the United States, the European Union and Japan in the hands of China's share even as Belgium and the Netherlands combined. According to the IMF's decision-making mechanism, possession of more than 16% of the United States has the absolute right of veto, which decided to set up the IMF in Washington, to some extent become a branch of the U.S. Treasury Department. This was a senseless mechanism, it is imperative to change. Europe's "new Bretton Woods system" in addition to preparations for the end of U.S. hegemony, but also raised the unreasonable international financial decision-making mechanism of reform, on this count, and fully consistent with the interests of China. Fourth, the United States, the European Union, Russia, Japan and the emerging countries on the purpose of the summit have major differences. Forced to participate in the United States aimed at a concerted global solution to the crisis, not to change the existing international financial order. European leaders have been advocating that the source of the current financial crisis in the United States, called on them to tear down the existing Bretton Woods system and establish a new world economic order, naked force the emperor to abdicate to the United States. Although the "BRIC" to participate in the emerging countries is not the only play a small role for Europe and the United States, but its purpose is to increase the country's financial sector, the right to speak, but the attitude of European and American point of view, this was the right to speak, Obviously depends on the summit brought about by the emerging countries the size of the check. In addition, you pay more, so that you speak, but there may not be the final decision. 4:00 this reality of China in the international summit on what kind of program to deal with the foundation, based on more than four points and the fact that China is facing the complexity of the game, when the tree to save money in the world is under the worst choice; pursuit of the yuan to become the world Reserve is not the reality. However, as emerging countries, big countries and the responsibility can not be avoided. As a result, the Chinese program, in the fundamental interests of China as the starting point at the same time, Europe and the United States and other countries may wish to use the game to Premier Wen's Asia-Europe Meeting in the three-point stance and a spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs based on the latest position, you can consider the following Some strategies to maximize the interests of China: First, the financial crisis exposed the international financial system, many of the disadvantages of the reform is the general trend, in particular, bear the financial stability of the international order in the International Monetary Fund, in the crisis as any of its reform is in power will行. Premier Wen Jiabao put forward the upgrading of emerging countries and developing countries the right to know, the right to speak and rule-making power, the establishment of a fair, just, inclusive and orderly international financial system, and emerging countries is exactly the same position, and the European Union Have some common ground could be limited support for the European Union. China should support the operations of the IMF rules and voting mechanism reform, in particular, to clear the Abolition of the United States in the IMF's de facto right to vote in the negative, while China increased IMF voting rights in proportion. Second, the EU's reform initiatives of the international monetary system, from the current pattern of the game, although the EU is ready for it, in a vain attempt to replace the dollar with the euro become a hard currency, but the current balance of power, not enough to the United States Pose a substantial threat to the status. From the status of the renminbi, the short-term there is no possibility of an international currency. Taking into account China's huge dollar-denominated assets, China should safeguard the dollar's status as an international currency-based position, but at the same time support for the dollar to monitor the issue and refrain from the excessive credit to buy U.S. dollars. Third, the decisive attack to buy high-tech. I have been to Europe and the United States are not in favor of Chinese financial institutions to buy the stake, but I have been advocating to copy "at the end of the high-tech." We should seize this unique experience will need to look at Europe and the United States, "Chinese face" an opportunity to use their game to break Europe and the United States has been China's high-tech trade barriers, the use of the financial crisis in their pocket shy, hard to buy Their technology, to buy the number of how many to buy! Independent innovation? At least, the current system of science and technology decision is purely a waste of capital and goods, China's investment in science and technology, but the output is too cold Chen. Microsoft has even tried to buy technology, we do not have any of the blush, to buy the technology, but also our own, it is not a purely in the global industrial chain on the poor to share the low-end processing fees partners in order to achieve industrial upgrading and economic The mode of transition. Fourthly, to break barriers to trade. Financial crisis, countries generally have a "beggar-thy-neighbor" trade protectionism, which has a 70% export dependence on China is no different from the worse. Initiatives in the United States and opposes trade protectionism, China should respond positively to the call on the protection of trade issues and work closely with the United States, China's exports to open the channels of life. Fifth, the degrading of China "market economy status" issues, this time, we can confidently address the requirements of the. China should bear the major responsibility for the country, but admitted that he is a "sound character" of the economy, the absurd logic of the explanation is the only out-and-out bully people. Well, finally your turn for me, then I am the first to recognize the individual able-bodied people now. This should become China's support for the EU or the U.S. plan for the minimum price. Finally, note that this summit, though important, can not be denied that there may be some matters of principle, a number of major issues to reach a consensus. But this is only a 6-hour session, as well as a new U.S. president Obama did not participate in the summit. Here in Washington of the Group of 20 leaders is that they are willing to let a broken old modernize the financial system, just in the United States not to have to prevent the next crisis will cost the world into an opportunity to change the voice in the United States 21 Century still be the single most important voices. Think of the Bretton Woods Conference had two full years, opened 22 days before the post-war international financial order to determine the results. As a result, this summit we can sit together on certain issues of principle to reach a consensus on the very bad. In particular, China, can not be absolutely sure to have a meeting to use "Menghuitangzhao" illusion. The pressure on the domestic economy in transition, the depth of the plight of the people's livelihood, difficult reforms, will not allow us to have too much time to stay in the dream of years.

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