The Chinese Government announced on November 9, the use of 4,000,000,000,000 yuan through fiscal expansion to the slowdown in domestic demand driven. At the same time, fiscal policy will be the keynote from "stable" to the tune of "positive", will be the keynote of monetary policy from "tight" to the tune of "moderate liberal." This is the former Prime Minister Zhu Rongji in the 1990s at the end of the Keynesian-style economic stimulus measures, the largest expansion of financial operations. When the news broke, not only in China's stock market soared, the stock market in the world have followed up. Governments expressed their appreciation for China's positive measures China has become a financial tsunami like the life-saving straw. China factor can not save the world recession? At present, the world's financial markets are still struggling in an abyss of misery. Since the collapse of Lehman Brothers since a few weeks, more than 8,000,000,000,000 U.S. dollars of global wealth was evaporating, the financial turmoil sweeping the world, across nearly all types of financial assets. This is the worst since the 1929 financial crisis is unprecedented in the history of modern financial catastrophe. In the face of a wave The closure of banks and the financial risk of systemic collapse, the central bank to cut interest rates joint injection, and secured lending market. At the same time, the United States, Britain, Germany and other countries have spent huge amounts of money the country shares the major banks, with a view to the national credit, to save the market's confidence in financial institutions, the resumption of capital markets, the soaring market call rate back to a reasonable level. Ministry of Finance and central bank measures the effectiveness remains to be seen, to restore market confidence even more will take time. But the financial crisis is far from the world economy facing all the difficulties, an even bigger challenge in the back - has been close to recession. As the global credit crunch and financial market turmoil, the economic downturn of the global characteristics of the linkage is very clear. In the next 3-4 quarters, the United States, Europe, Japan entered the simultaneous economic recession has been difficult to avoid, previously considered the possibility of delinking the developed countries and emerging markets have been falling commodity prices, the slowdown in global demand, the sharp fall in asset prices and capital withdrawal The impact of the rapid deterioration of the economic outlook. The author estimates that the global economy in 2009, the GDP growth between 1.5-2.2%, and 5.2 percent two years ago, the level of growth compared to callback shocking. IMF will be set to 3% of the global recession of the watershed. The Asian financial crisis, China was once Asia's economic Dinghaishenzhen. Refused, as well as the devaluation of the yuan after the "Chinese demand" to alleviate the suffering of the crisis countries in Asia quickly out of recession and restore economic vitality to provide important support. Ten years have passed by the Chinese economic giant has grown into a global economic giant, "China needs" to become a leading world economy, an important force in its demand for commodities, machinery and demand for Asian intra-regional trade over the impact of even the United States. China could become a savior of the world recession? I believe that this is unlikely. China's financial institutions by the sub-loan crisis is not the direct impact, at the same time the country's domestic demand to some extent independent of the trend of the world economy. However, China's economy has entered its downward cycle, exports, consumption and investment slowed down troika at the same time, sank the stock market can not, the real estate market at stake. Wen Jiabao, the Cabinet since taking office in 2003, may be the first to be true in order to maintain the economic growth of 8% of the fight. China's export industry is facing a difficult situation for all to see, not only shrinking orders of the United States, the European demand will decline, the Middle East, Asia, the situation is not optimistic. RMB appreciation and rising costs, resulting in Guangdong, Zhejiang Province, and other emerging wave of factory closures, the export industry is facing a structural adjustment. China's exports stagnated, and Asian countries, its former parts and raw materials imports would not be ideal. As for domestic demand, as the stock market, housing prices decline, the negative wealth effect has begun to ferment, the bulk of personal consumer goods (such as automotive, tourism, home appliances) a sharp fall in consumption, consumer confidence in the past 10 years there have been rare obviously vulnerable. Recently, non-government-funded private investment seemed to disappear overnight, economic stall the increase in risk. 17 opening of the Third Plenary Session of the rural land use rights, trading rights, it may be for rural production and consumption of hope and vitality, but it is the medium-term variable in the past year or two expect it to stimulate demand, Distant water is hard in recent thirst. Fixed assets investment, infrastructure construction to speed up the pace in the Government's fiscal policy will also step up efforts to expand, but the slowdown in real estate construction. Into the cycle of economic decline, weaker demand, the market downturn, entrepreneurs, lack of confidence in the prospects for the market, industrial investment and business investment also believe that the reduction. The real estate market is the next step of China's economic trend in the thermometer. Housing sales due to the decrease in the number of financing channels blocked, a large number of developers facing a cash flow crisis, may at any time due to lack of mobility and close down. For the real estate market crisis situation, Beijing has been the focus of the policy to suppress support, tacit approval of local governments have been offering good housing policy. The central government in the house down payment, home buyers in the second suite, and so on, will also be a concession. But I believe that these policies may be able to price stability in the housing, but may not be able to attract a large number of buyers into the market. Buyers on the price expectations have been changed in the foreseeable future will not demand a substantial increase in new buyers and not the needs of real estate sales can hardly be a big improvement for Chinese goods and machinery demand Can hardly be a big improvement. 4,000,000,000,000 yuan of fiscal expansion plan, which is equivalent to 16-17% of the Chinese year of GDP, a large number of foreigners to staggering proportions. However, under the headline did not disclose details, is almost certain that this package, there are new projects as well as old items (including many already included in the 11th Five-Year Plan has been the start of the project). In addition, China may be the only one in the world can not demonstrate, not through the legislature, not to set out the sources of funding, they dished out such a large expenditure. Central to the current debt / GDP ratio, the central government should be able to bear part of the project. But not the land of the revenue of local governments and the bank began Xi Dai, is unknown. Moreover, many of the projects take a considerable amount of preparatory work (try to imagine Xinjiang in the design and construction of a railway in the city's subway repair local residents). I think at the end of the next two years brought to fruition the new infrastructure projects may be far lower than the propaganda out of 4 trillion. Of course, China's economic situation is better than many other countries. Chinese mainland-based economy, the billion people who need food, clothing, the demand for this type of drifted away from the global crisis under. Add to accelerate the launch of infrastructure construction, as well as expansionary monetary policy, tax policy, I believe that China's GDP growth should be maintained at 7 to 8%. The number in the world is more ideal, but still nearly 12 percent from a year ago the growth of small one-third of the drop. China's economy has been maintaining for five consecutive years in more than 10% growth, signs of overheating can be found everywhere - liquidity, asset prices, wage increases, raw material consumption. This situation is difficult to continue long-term, but repeated government regulation but effective. Global financial turmoil and the domestic price falls in leveraging last economy and a downward cycle. Once the formation of the economic slowdown, I believe the momentum is difficult to reverse in the short term. The need to accelerate the economy back on consumption, export, real estate economic engine of the three, at least two transferred to the upward trend. Or in rural areas, the service industries are a new weather. These are not be reached overnight. China is now the size of the economy is so huge, very high base, the need to restart the momentum than a decade ago, also need more growth points, but the motivation and a new growth point for the time being has not yet emerged. The author believes that China's economic growth is likely 2-3 years in a row at around 8-9% growth range. China to maintain 8 percent economic growth for the global economy has made a significant contribution to alleviate the suffering of the Asian economic crisis of unprecedented, as well as the simultaneous decline of the rare poison. But do not forget that China's economy in a downward cycle itself, the main force in the past few years has been remarkable growth point of fatigue. Government and the central bank's measures to put an end to stimulate the economy have fallen sharply, but the policy factors alone may not be able to restart the rise of a new cycle. The author believes that China's economy to expect in the short term to fight to save the Asian economy, is not realistic.
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