2008年11月10日星期一
Obama for the RMB to bring new variables
47-year-old Obama was elected the first black U.S. president, the future direction of the yuan would have a new variable, or renminbi revaluation will accelerate the resumption of the road. "For China, the only suspense about Obama is that the RMB exchange rate issue," Citibank Asia-Pacific chief economist Yiping Huang told the "Financial Weekly", "next year if the U.S. economy from further deterioration, in particular the increase in unemployment rate , The yuan will be created intense pressure. " This is because, from Obama's Democratic Party, traditionally supporters of the mostly blue-collar, and the close relationship between the union and therefore the Democratic Party has the political tendency of trade protectionism. During the election campaign, Obama's protectionist voices very clear. According to the President of the United States in the past few sessions to observe the election, the new president came into office, usually to curry favor with voters to abandon some of the commitments, and towards more open and pragmatic policy, many experts predict that Obama will continue to adhere to the multi-left government's free trade . Once the United States suffered a severe unemployment problem, to choose will be much more complex, the issue of the RMB exchange rate might be the primary objective. Because the revaluation of the yuan could ease the huge U.S. trade deficit with China, thus more job opportunities to stay in the United States. On a sharp appreciation of the RMB against the backdrop that the huge U.S. trade deficit with China, the U.S. Treasury Department on many occasions to China a "currency manipulator", thus the political and trade on China to exert pressure on the multiple. If the future of the United States can not quickly recover from the financial crisis, with past practice it is very likely re-meng. However, the continued appreciation of the yuan, a sharp appreciation of the choice of flat or rise, but also depends on China. Huang Ping believe that the relatively stable Sino-US relations, economic and trade relations between the relatively more mature, and China's growing strength in China's bargaining power is enhanced. This means that China may not be under pressure to choose their own very detrimental to the sharp appreciation. Shun Gao Shanwen, chief economist of the Securities said, Obama will be the last extension of previous U.S. government's approach toward China, as Sino-US relations over the past decade the game again. "Fundamentally speaking, Sino-US relations based on the interests and power-based game, no matter who the president will not deviate from the current pattern." He said China in the global economy and the impact of the rising strength of competition, this is the basic foundation for the strategic pattern. In addition, China has nearly 2 trillion dollars of foreign exchange reserves, as well as huge trade surpluses which have allowed China to the United States have a significant impact can not be ignored. This means that the RMB against the U.S. dollar will have a greater voice. In addition to the RMB exchange rate issue, the status of the RMB is also the United States will face a major problem. "The rise of China and the rise of the yuan, is bound to international economic, financial redistribution of the right to speak, as well as redistribution of interests. Obama may be the first to really address this problem President of the United States." Gao Shanwen said.
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