As the rumor did not deliver good weekend, A-share market rebound blocked on average 60 days after the significant downturn in the volume shrinking rapidly. We believe that, despite the weakening trend of stock, but in the following four major reasons for the support of, A shares rebound trend has not changed, shortly after the market is still expected to challenge 2,300 points. One reason: A-share market in recent years is in the most favorable policy environment. 4,000,000,000,000 yuan policy was to stimulate the economy, a rebound into the current round of the "fuse." Subsequently, the central and local governments to implement policies to stimulate the economy continued to launch the program. We believe that the introduction of the program to stimulate the economy so as to change investor expectations for the future fundamentals than directly stimulate the stock market more effective and more lasting good. For a period of time in the future will continue to be the introduction of the policy-intensive areas, the policy-driven rebound is expected to continue. Second reason: The fundamentals are expected to continue in the short term is unlikely to deteriorate significantly. Investors expected the deteriorating fundamentals is the core of the current round of correction in the stock market, at present, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (stock market right) constituent stocks in 2008 is expected to profit from the beginning of the growth of more than 30% down to single-digit growth , The profit in 2009 is widely expected zero growth or negative growth is expected to continue to reduce the space has been significantly reduced. A short period of time is the fundamentals of the data vacuum, the fundamentals for the market to suppress the role will be diminished. Three reasons: valuation of the rebound in the previous period of more space. As of last Friday's close, all the A shares of PB to 2.26 times since 2002, the PB is the average level of 3.2 times, 1.7 times the minimum is. Even with the lowest level compared to the current valuation is also higher than only 30%. Taking into account the revaluation of assets, higher than the actual rate will be smaller. The industrial capital in the near future also support this point, one-size reduction efforts significantly reduced, and the other is overweight increased acts. As a result, compared with the previous rebound, the rebound in the market valuation of more space. Four reasons: the international environment to reduce the negative impact of the previous period. Despite the current international market is still in turmoil, but has improved compared to the early, fell after a rebound has also increased. With the new government of the United States gradually to determine the cabinet, the market will also be expected to stabilize. Judging from the recent market movements, although the A shares have been volatile in the international market impact, but the impact of weaker domestic factors to increase significantly. For these reasons, we believe, A-share market has gone through in the short-term shocks, a rebound trend will continue, to maintain the current round of the 2300 high point rebound to judge. According to the latest research department of CITIC Securities predicted that the focus of the 27 sub-sectors covering a total of 301 companies in 2008 will maintain a 8.8 percent profit growth in 2009 will maintain a growth rate of 20% (pessimistic case for the growth rate of 8%). From the concrete industry, aviation, construction materials, electrical equipment, insurance, basic chemical, petrochemical and other industries profit growth than other industries, shipping, such as iron and steel industry showed negative growth in profits. From 2009 PE valuation point of view, paper, machinery, iron and steel, building materials, textiles and other low-end valuation at the plate.
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