2008年11月12日星期三
Two factors led the market structure
Prices down and the economic downturn for the sector expansionary macroeconomic policies to provide more space to operate, the market's more positive policy efforts have higher expectations, which would effectively close down the market, making the index into the box marked shock stage . We believe that the high throw bargain-hunting will begin to operate as an effective strategy to benefit from changes in the policies of the industry's performance is still an opportunity Direction of macro-economic downturn, the data are still being introduced, but it does not seem to surprise most investors had expected. And because of this, in the face of adverse market data showed more resilience characteristics. At the same time, prices come down and the economic downturn for the sector expansionary macroeconomic policies to provide more space to operate, the market's more positive policy efforts have higher expectations, which would effectively close down the market, making the index into the clear Box shock stage. We believe that the high throw bargain-hunting will begin to operate as an effective strategy to benefit from changes in the policies of the industry's performance is still an opportunity. Two factors led the market structure Impact on investment in the market mentality of many factors. At present, three in the Quarterly Bulletin revealed that the U.S. presidential election and a clear step by step to ease the credit crisis, the impact on the market has been gradually falling into the hands of the main factors for the decline in the domestic economy and concerns about the maintenance of economic and stock market stability, good policy is expected to both. On the contrary forces of the two basic factors to the stock market will be in the frame box to run the shock pattern. The decline in macro-economic information continues to show. China's export growth in October slowed to 19.2 percent, than the ring fell 2.3 percentage points from July's 26.9 percent growth rate marked gap between the external economic environment's influence began to appear. October imports growth from September's 21.3 percent decline to 15.6 percent, the internal economic vitality began to slide, which reflect demand for electricity to run businesses and the PMI index fell another new low can see the evident. However, relatively favorable price level of China's information continues to come down further in October CPI fell to 4.0%, PPI from September's 9.1 percent to 6.6 percent from the significant downturn. Inflationary pressures will not be the main macro-economic issues, policies for promoting economic growth provided a valuable space Tengnue. We can see that in the near future management of the decisive conversion keynote policy, implemented a proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy, together with the amount of up to 4 trillion yuan of ten measures to expand domestic demand, the size, strength and speed in the tens of Years are very rare. It should be noted that ten measures needed to implement a process to achieve the expansion of domestic demand and protect the people's livelihood, the policy objective of promoting growth, the stock market's short-term efforts to stimulate a relatively limited economic downturn will be a fundamental limitation in the index rebounded space . But the low point in 1800, more substantial rate cut, the greater the intensity of financial expenditure program, and even a direct response to the stock market is still worthy of the program to save the market expected, the index is expected to enter a relatively stable pattern of shock box. Market sentiment appeared signs of active After the baptism of a bear market for a long time, the vast majority of investors to operate with great care, but we should also see that market sentiment has been active step by step. From the surface, the recent weakness of the market volume has been significantly higher than the early stage of the stock rose significantly more than the number of stocks fell. In addition, the rapid decline after the process tends to lead to intervention buying, rather than pouring more Shadie plate, which is a clear difference in pre-market. From the characteristics of the leading shares, currently Huoyue Gu are the basic policy of expanding domestic demand and there is some kind of actual contact, not the subject matter of absolute speculation, such as cement, railway and related equipment, building materials, machinery, iron and steel, and even the ports, high-speed Infrastructure such as stocks. As a result of these new features to run, we believe that the sustainability of a rebound may be stronger than previously. State issued 4,000,000,000,000 yuan plan to expand domestic demand should have an important impact on many industries, the market is still hot to further deepen the spread of the possible. At the same time, we do not rule out the introduction of the management policies of the possibility of greater efforts in order to market a new stimulus. On the whole, in nature, we will continue to rise is defined as the policy to stimulate more local reaction. Although not rule out the popular pick to follow up and follow-up policy more room for the possibility of a rebound, but the basic medium-term defense strategy can not completely give up. Macro-economic in the next 2-3 months to accelerate the decline in the market will show greater volatility characteristics of the high-left bargain-hunting strategy will show better results in actual combat, and the market will continue to be hot on the government to stimulate economic policies carried out in-depth step by step .
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