The stock market in the short term trend emerging opportunities, most likely in a box finishing the balance between shock pattern, which can only be a band operation, Bankuailundong. The end of the year, fallen too far, the policy rate cut and positive aspects, such as support, is still concerned about the short-term rebound in the band of opportunity is still waiting for the medium and long-term Recently the market has introduced favorable policies in support of the rebound clear. Clearly the Government to implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderate monetary policy, and determined to further expand the current domestic demand and economic growth of ten, according to preliminary estimated that by the end of 2010 to about 4 trillion yuan of investment. By this policy to stimulate positive, the recent A-share market volume rose, the Shanghai index up about 23%. And the expansion of domestic demand-related non-ferrous metals, construction materials, mechanical equipment, financial services industries were among the biggest gainers. Judging from the recent inflow of funds into the analysis of the situation, the inflow of funds into the seats in the body is not obvious signs, but signs of the inflow and outflow of hot money has been very active, an indication of the current drive to market-based floating capital. Limit the sale of shares this week lifting the ban on a larger scale, mainly the Bank of Communications (601,328), shares of Shougang (000,959), China Southern cars (601,766), Haitong Securities (600,837) a larger number of large-scale lifting of the ban limit the sale of shares, Stock may have some deterrent effects. Last week, China and South cars institutional investors have been signs of the beginning of cash left, Haitong Securities is the major institutions in cash under the pressure of large single-sealed shut limit, the agency has increased this week to sell the shares placement The possibility. In the aftermath of the revised valuation of the short-term, A-share companies and the industry will continue to be subject to the macro-economic situation. The government launched a series of favorable policies, but only to alleviate the economic downturn, can not completely reverse the pattern of economic adjustment. In order to promote investment to GDP is upset, and these investments on the overall economy is relatively limited coverage, many industries will face overcapacity problems. In addition, the positive effect of the actual need for a longer period of time to show, how has yet to be observed in the future. At present, the company's cyclical performance-wise, it seems very undervalued, but in the face of future market conditions, some of the challenges is that there is the valuation of two factors: the price and company fundamentals. If earnings and sales continued to decline, the price now will soon become expensive. In addition, if the market like in the 1970s as a long-term downturn, the valuation may remain low for many years. Many of the stock price, investors in these companies is expected to be earnings from the recent high of about half of the reduction. Earnings prospects is a big uncertainty. We present the severity of the recession, as well as the duration are unknown and therefore difficult to know when earnings will rebound in the bottom. In the current economic structure adjustment, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index acceptable to-earnings ratio of dynamic conservative and defensive-oriented, in order to have sufficient safety margin, the proposal should not exceed 15 times. If the optimistic assumption that in 2008 the overall growth of 12%, currently in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index of dynamic earnings ratio of 13 times, corresponding to the Shanghai Composite Index, means that the fundamentals are still difficult to support the Shanghai Composite Index in 2300 At the top of the run. On the whole, the government adopted an active attitude to the expansion of domestic demand and economic stability, the market will have a very positive impact, short-term market shocks will continue to rise, the 2000-point mark is up, the 60-day moving average near to serve as an important pressure. However, so far all the policies in the amount of accumulation is not enough to push the market trend of market opportunities. In 2000 the market is expected to remain at the top of the body by increasing the differences. Grasp the opportunity to rebound in the short-term, cyclical stocks should also pay close attention to the impact of lower risk. In the policy to stimulate domestic demand and continue to follow up the introduction of rules, and is expected to cut interest rates and oil products is expected to reform, both in the short term investor sentiment and the market has some positive impact and promote. In this case, is expected this week on the overall market rebound will continue upward trend is still bullish plate plate mainly driven policies, other industries are also likely to follow-Bu Zhang. Of course, from the Central quarter growth rate than the point of view, the economy is the worst possible time in the fourth quarter of this year. Excluding petroleum, petrochemical, power, such as the financial industry's profit after year-on-year profit growth is expected in the fourth quarter of 2008 will have to explore low. This means that, in the fourth quarter are likely to be encountered basic earnings fell short period of the greatest impact. Economic or experienced for a long phase of low growth under the influence of the stock market in the short term trend emerging opportunities, most likely in a box finishing the balance between shock pattern, which can only be a band operation, Bankuailundong . The end of the year, fallen too far, the policy rate cut and positive aspects, such as support, is still concerned about the short-term nature of the band the opportunity to rebound, while the medium and long term still have to wait. In this context, the recent capital market is still mainly blue-chip blue-chip, hot stock recommendations concern the following: Sinopec's S (600688): At present, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, China's refined oil pricing mechanism reform is expected to enable companies of a certain trade opportunities. Company earnings are more sensitive to the price of crude oil, crude oil prices will decline in the company a major positive. Decline in crude oil per 1 U.S. dollars / barrel, the company will increase revenue 500,000,000 yuan, EPS will increase by 0.07 yuan. China's petrochemical industry is in a period of rapid growth, the company currently is mainly attributable to the loss of crude oil prices and state control of oil prices. With the oil price mechanism to speed up the adjustment of economic growth and a gradual pick-up in the future development of Shanghai Petrochemical prospects. 08-10 year profit is expected to improve gradually, in the short-term opportunities exist, concerned about the proposal. Electrical and Kodak (600499): The building of new countryside will bring tremendous opportunities. Ceramic construction in recent years by rapid large part of the rural market-driven. Just completed an additional, abundant cash flow, and the other great new business space, the future is expected to bring stability to high profits. 08-09 year earnings per share forecast to maintain steady growth, to consider non-recurring profit and loss per share is expected to sharply than expected performance in 2010 is expected to appear outbreak of a clear growth in the future. Keep the current underestimate the share price, there is a better chance of long-term, medium-term recommendations concern. Three pharmaceutical fine (600,829): January to September's sales growth of 24.80 percent, much higher than the same period of last year's 6.31 percent and the growth rate of 24.27 percent over the medium term have increased slightly. To accelerate revenue growth primarily due to the strengthening of sales channels, the S & P-type products, sales growth, OTC product sales grew steadily. The main varieties of zinc gluconate and calcium gluconate are still maintained a slight growth in Shuanghuanglian Secretary, Mr Robin growth and stability. Changes in tax rates for the time being dragged down performance. Companies preferential tax rates in 2007, the income tax rate from 15% to 25%. As a direct result of operating profit and revenue growth of the flat net profit growth of only 9.61 percent. At present, the company is applying for the high-tech enterprises. As the state has the first batch of innovative enterprises, the annual investment in research and development is also close to 100,000,000, the company that is not much high-tech enterprises, income tax rates will be reduced from 25% to 15%. The company's line of products rich in research in many products. OTC in the field of marketing and brand advantages, without considering the tax changes, the company forecast EPS in 2008 were 0.70 yuan, 0.90 yuan. As the company's main profit comes mainly from revenue growth prospects for a clear, present only 17 times earnings, well below the average level of Chinese medicine. Long-term bullish prospects for the development of the company may focus on the medium-term. Chinese enterprises (600675): At present, the stock of companies mainly located in Shanghai, Suzhou, and projects a better geographical location, the higher gold content, the more optimistic about the future earnings prospects, such as the ancient North business district, the western suburbs of the second phase Villa, in the southern suburbs of the Chinese Garden, Suzhou The Fifth Element Shanghai International passenger traffic is expected to center into a strong growth performance points. Financial pressure than obvious that financing is a priority, is expected to 08,09-year earnings per share will grow steadily in the short term there is a big opportunity to propose medium-term concern. Area of support (002,147) The company into a rapid expansion of production capacity growth momentum, with the raising and non-raising project in June 2008 to the second quarter of 2009 and gradually put into production, output is expected to turn support in 2007 from 41,000 units in 2010 increased to 127,600 units, production of compound growth rate of 45% , Downstream from the common engineering machinery industry to wind power, defense, high-end level of precision mechanical excavators and large-scale expansion, diversification of applications cyclical weakening, the proposed short-term concern. Spent three shares (002,050): In the direction after the completion of the issuance of the total share capital by 113 million shares increased to 264 million shares, according to the results promised by the end of 2008 projected net assets per share of about 10 yuan. If the forecast is only giving the three groups spent refrigeration and the situation is a subsidiary 2008-2009 EPS of about 0.98 and 1.15 yuan, the current stock price relative 2008 PE only about 9 times lower than the net asset per share, shareholders approved the orientation Issuing price of 13.5 yuan underestimated by 45%. Keep the current underestimate the share price, there is a better chance of long-term, medium-term recommendations concern. Aerospace Information (600271): As a result of electronic invoice management needs of the company's main growth space greatly, the prospects are positive. Despite the current economic difficulties faced by large, but little impact. General taxpayers in the anti-risk ability of small-scale taxpayers. The personnel, assets will be injected to speed up the process. Assuming marked down at the same time, there is no price hedging and other factors, earnings per share the year 2008-2010 is expected to 1,1.70,2.00 yuan, the medium-term focus. Heavy land and sea (002255): Company adequate waste heat boiler orders, as scheduled expansion of production capacity: 1.4 billion of orders at the beginning, to benefit from strong demand, a conservative estimate by the end of the implementation of orders in hand are not up to the amount of 18-20 billion over the next 2 years in advance to protect the production, is expected to 08-10 years, waste heat boiler capacity Growth rate of 30%, 30% and 20%; conservative 08-2010-year earnings per share are expected to 0.67,0.96 and 1.26 yuan, corresponding to earnings ratio 21.8,15.1,11.5 times. Keep the current underestimate the share price, there is a better chance of long-term, medium-term recommendations concern. Taihao Science and Technology (600590): Smart is the leading industry in the next 3 years, is expected to share intelligent building electrical industry integrates growth of 08-10 years, the relative net profit 22 percent compound growth rate, in 2009 PE12.1 times, PB1.3 times still undervalued, is expected to 08-2010 0.33,0.4-year earnings per share and 0.52 yuan, corresponding to the current 08-10 profit Urban 14.8,12.1,9.3 times, 1.5 times that of 2008 Shijing Shuai, a low valuation, the medium-term focus. Yanjing Beer (000729): China's beer industry is a leading, regional adhere to the "intensive" development strategy over the next few years will be to consolidate the regional advantages, to the disadvantaged in one or two of the original strategic market development. In the domestic barley prices next year is a foregone conclusion, packaging, labor, transportation and other costs will come down, the beer industry in 2009 is expected to cost pressures will be reversed, the industry consolidated gross margin level is expected to rise. With provincial-level dealers to take the business model is an exclusive, long-term good cooperation so that the sales channels have a strong attachment (the high cost of conversion). This exclusive partnership allows competitors more difficult to seize the company's core markets in Beijing, Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Fujian and other more obvious advantages of the market. After the Games the cost of sales will be lower than the level of the previous two years, then decline. Directed additional attention to the program may be completed by the end of the year, the controlling shareholder of the company's support for obvious may be concerned about the long-term.
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