2008年11月29日星期六

Geithner melancholy eyes and the market in the future


This week, Wall Street seems to be from Geithner's appointment to see a glimmer of hope. On that day, the Dow Jones index in the last hour up 500 points to close at 8046 points, but the future of the new Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner that depression and a loss of facial expression seems to remind people: this kind of reaction is too exaggerated! When the crisis has become a reality, not the individual's ability to decide all the factors, the new managers on Wall Street to the American people will never be the medicine's effects, but he can do is to change this Crisis and the crisis before the pattern of distribution of benefits. Developments of this matter has become increasingly clear that the Americans had followed the previous arrival of the economic crisis when the usual practice in 1957 and 1975 and the early 1980s, the crisis is to do so, that is, at all costs to keep power There are no say in the eastern part of the financial group, the United States Financial Group and the London Financial Group at this time would hold tightly together, they joined hands at the central bank's short-selling at high prices of gold in exchange for market liquidity and decisively and expeditiously in order to suppress commodity prices U.S. hold on the decline, however, the central and western regions for the car manufacturers, railways and other public goods investment in building support is also uninterested in the past. Obama may be in the team after two months of this amendment, but then those financial group should have been available to them all. However, China must approach the other hand, we are also no limit on the banking system to inject liquidity, it is fortunate that this work three years ago when the bank listed on restructuring has been completed. The Chinese government is thinking through the mass of the central government and local government-led infrastructure to sustain our economic vitality, an unprecedented scale. China and the United States to rescue the market have focused on the effect of time yet to be verified, but there is one point pen husband need to say here that out of their own, and that is the focus of the Government to save the economy in addition to investment in infrastructure, more importantly, the need for national Encourage and guide for the consumer, it is necessary to do so, the premise is to protect the purchasing power of people's access to credit and support the capacity, if it can not be slack, to stimulate the economy, it will become the monopoly of government-led trade since the bomb Since the act of singing, the effect of greatly reduced. Over the past few years with the huge output of the whole society, people still lack the purchasing power of growth, especially in the capital market in 2008 brought about by the downturn in asset prices led to reduced purchasing power of many of the missing. At such times, government tax should be introduced immediately and decisively, in particular the personal income tax relief measures to stimulate consumption is very necessary that the radical approach, the government should exempt a year or even two years of personal income tax, to do so , The Government may have a year to reduce the income of about 350,000,000,000, but I think that this will be more effective than the money invested in infrastructure to be more effective. It is also very important, although there have been attempts to establish confidence in us, but we need a realistic manner with a clear, in the form of the economy to prepare for the worst, otherwise, from officials to ordinary people do not know how to face the situation To deal with, certainly not of self-deception. This week the central bank robbery in the monthly economic data released on the first substantial cut interest rates 108 basis points seems to imply something. Therefore, the rate cut on the day of the Shanghai index is still Gaokaidizou, although the technology can also be interpreted as graphics on average by 60 days of repression (the Mufti has been to pen a two-week), however, increasingly uncertain about deflation Worried that the situation is a decisive factor, and Friday seems to be trying to disclose some of the media have not published the data, but the husband that the total economic situation of a judge who should not be too surprised that the data are. Although the stock market decline has been enough to react to some extent from the economic downturn, but it takes time to restore confidence in such times, investors have to make any decision-making can be understood, but there are two points to note that you first The risk is the psychological limit of the number, and the other is your own money, what is the nature of (their own or borrowing). Thursday is Thanksgiving in the United States, the stock market closed, before the U.S. have four-session winning streak, is extraordinary. This echoes, a substantial rebound in gold, the dollar will be adjusted sharply downwards accordingly. The Dow Jones industrial average and the gold would seem to rebound in the last two trading days ended, no more benefit to support its multi-factor continue to rise, but the pen feeling confused husband is U.S. dollars, involves the complexity of the fundamentals, but also mixed with the United States Government Attitude, it is indeed difficult to make clear its long-term direction of the judge, but from a technical point of view graphics, the dollar index back to the 60 day average is reasonable. Futures prices of crude oil a wide gap between the trend, so this week, NYMEX crude oil futures price volatility is the third consecutive day over 7%, which is quite rare. Many people believe that oil could usher in a rebound in oil prices and JP Morgan Chase will look at as low as 35 U.S. dollars. From a technical point of view, oil prices fell below 55 U.S. dollars of this support, this position is that by the end of 2006 to adjust low broke and then 50 dollars 55 U.S. dollars Huichou this root line, if confirmed to continue down a U-turn , Then the rate will be down big time at least a year. If this trend holds, then other commodities will also establish the direction of the pen Cardiff next week, feeling out of the commodity market as a whole Powei down the possibility is very great.

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