2008年11月2日星期日

A blessing if the financial crisis

Does not exist not the origin of the crisis, no not the future direction of the crisis. Crisis caused confusion in many people are still figuring out how to overcome the crisis, some people began mapping out ways to get advantages in crisis. There is a phenomenon worth noting is that the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates forced to deal with liquidity crisis, the U.S. dollar cut into the channel, while the U.S. dollar against major currencies has continued to rise, in a normal market environment, the reasons for this phenomenon difficult to obtain adequate Explained that in the current financial crisis, this phenomenon can only country with the conscious act together. Only during the crisis of the U.S. dollar will remain in order to allow the world to maintain confidence in the currency against the U.S. dollar, will be those who are weak sales of treasury bonds to China, Japan, Saudi Arabia and other U.S. forces were under the control of the economy, a strong dollar at this point in time Other than at any time's good for America. To stay away from the financial crisis, the best way is there before the crisis to avoid predictability. In 1993 China carried out exchange rate reform, the initiative to allow the renminbi devaluation in the case, the facts have showed that the devaluation of the currency that is the only achievement of China's exports of consumer goods global hegemony, the achievements of the difficult challenges of today's "world factory" status from Significantly improved China's international balance of payments, China's foreign exchange reserves since then has become a great power, and resulted in one of the most immediate benefits, and that is fortunate enough to successfully avoid the Asian financial crisis, and even the ability to help Just return to the motherland of Hong Kong from greater impact. If you can not do the best, then be able to leverage the crisis in the force, shift the risk in a timely manner, and for the financial crisis in order to make their own arrangements is the second-best approach. The financial crisis, many scholars come to different conclusions, many people start to the financial derivatives exist questioned the rationale for, they did not know if the United States would not subordinated to the sales all over the world, the United States financial institutions The loss is much, so far, in a Wall Street mess, with problems of financial institutions, the U.S. real economy although the impact has begun to show, but compared to the collapse of the property market due to the effect remains limited. The reality is that the United States on the pattern of global financial arrangements, we should not suspect that the United States market, many of the acts of purpose, of course, it is now, Kusangzhuolian for us to buy their bonds, then, should we succumb? Western leaders changed Tibet and human rights issues on China's hostile attitude to China with one voice to sing carols, the United States, Deputy Finance Minister said that even Rouma to China for allies in order to allow China to get out of tickets. Should we succumb? British Prime Minister Tony Brown last week and should be, and China in the IMF to contribute generously to help rid the world of the crisis. As a big country, we deserved to do a big country. However, the rescue package is not a moral issue but an economic problem, do not need the Western world in a very utilitarian approach to ask the Chinese capital to rescue the market, China must in the current situation under the current situation and future in the interest of the appropriate , As the Americans a few years ago forced Chinese RMB appreciation, yes, we can appreciate, but according to what kind of appreciation of the beat is our own thing, which is China's own interest, but if the United States People walking the beat, it is entirely the interests of the American arrangements. Fortunately, we should not have early on opening the capital account convertibility of the renminbi, which we survived at least two global and regional financial crisis. We should be glad that the first few years of dollar depreciation began, China has begun to make the alert, otherwise China's foreign exchange reserve has long been more on dollar-denominated assets, China should also be glad that four years ago we carried out by the joint-stock reform of the banking sector , Is that restructuring, divestiture of a large number of non-performing assets from Huijin capital injection from its financial market have huge amounts of money, which of the three major Chinese state-owned commercial banks and other joint-stock commercial banks are still adequate to deal with economic assets adequacy ratio Depression, which is in a liquidity crisis, on the verge of bankruptcy in the West Bank in sharp contrast, about four years ago, China's banking industry by Western economists as a technical bankruptcy. It is often said that there are people stupid stupid blessing. Over the years the Americans to do the Wanhua Yang, the Chinese people and honestly engage in construction, financial affairs as a matter of fact do not have too much, but some things just part, but there are days old to take care of. At present, and a variety of choices before us. China must understand that we need to present what do we gain? How to manage the RMB exchange rate? Foreign exchange reserves, how? The financial sector in order to open attitude to what? How to face the temptation of international assets? All these, we need a future-oriented strategic perspective. We hope that the 5-year or even 10 years later, the Chinese government is currently still in a crisis do feel lucky, but we can not hope that it has been as lucky, a lot of things may need to be more clear than in the past and operation of the train of thought.

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