China GDP growth next year may be reduced to 6%

Overseas investment banks have been singing China's economic space, Deutsche Bank research report into the fourth quarter, China's economic growth rate there is a clear sign of slowing, despite the October-related economic data has not yet released, but the industry next year on the domestic economic situation has worried Some even beyond the pessimistic forecasts of people's imagination. As an overseas investment bank Deutsche Bank on behalf of one of the chief Greater China economist Jun Ma recently released a study that, next year if there is no more pro-active fiscal policy, China's GDP growth rate may drop to 6%. The judge in the macro-economic study of people have had their differences, the Pacific stock of the latest report of the macro expressed the same judge, and the macro-GF Securities, said researcher Dr. Liu Zhaohui, the impact of the economic situation next year too much uncertainty, I believe that the country The macro-control policy to avoid the emergence of the Great Depression. Interpretation Japan plunged into recession in the United States and Europe all-round China-than-expected drag down Ma Jun in the report that the economy next year faced downside risks have been far greater than expected a few months ago. He explained that China's economic pull of the "Troika": investment, exports and domestic demand, exports and investment next year's growth rate will be decreased, especially in export prospects are not very optimistic. Historical data show that the GDP growth rate in Europe and the United States every 1 percentage point slowdown in China's export growth rate will be dropped 7 percentage points. At present, the United States, Europe, Japan next year into a full recession almost certain, GDP growth rate may drop to -1.2%; even take into account China's export tax refund rate continues to increase, China's export volume growth rate of in-kind may be from this year's 11 % Down to 0% next year, in dollar terms, the growth rate of exports from this year's 20% decline next year to 4% to 5%. Since the fourth quarter, as the macro regulation and control there has been a fundamental change in direction, the growth of insurance has become the primary objective of the work of the economy, stimulating economic growth as the most obvious effect, the fastest-effective investment in infrastructure has been a significant increase in November, the national railway , Roads, ports and other infrastructure investment rate increased significantly. But Ma Jun in the report remain of the view that domestic investment next year will inevitably slow down significantly, including the main reasons: First, real estate investment in fixed assets may be decreased as a leader in the investment index of real estate sales in the first three quarters of this year year-on-year decline 15%, while the developer is expected to average 20% decline in investment next year; Second, the manufacturing sector due to the decline in earnings growth, leading to the enthusiasm of its investment decreased; Third, the domestic corporate earnings growth from last year dropped to 37% this year 8 months to 19%, while driving investment in fixed assets is the main source of funding its own corporate funds; Fourth, Xi Dai banks and the stock market financing function will have a significant weakening in domestic investment slowed significantly. Ma Jun believes that the absence of fiscal incentives, investment in fixed assets in the name of this year's growth rate from about 27% next year dropped to about 15%, 20% lower than previously expected. Advice 400,000,000,000 deficit insurable or eight local power should issue bonds to help themselves Ma Jun in the report suggested that the Government will consider the 2009 central budget deficit is set at 400,000,000,000 or so, the central government this year is about the actual 100,000,000,000 yuan may have a surplus next year 300,000,000,000 yuan of treasury bonds issued full use of the net. According to his calculations, the amount of domestic GDP next year to about 1.5% of the total, according to the China Financial about 1.3 multiplier effect of the calculation, in theory, 400,000,000,000 deficit fiscal policy can raise economic growth by about 2 percentage points, making GDP growth will be maintained at about 8%. But the report is still on next year's domestic revenue growth rate of decline in the international economic environment, as well as the prospects for concern, which may affect the fiscal deficit to GDP of the practical effect of driving. At the same time, Ma Jun said that in order to supplement the central budget for the possible lack of local infrastructure can increase the size of the business of issuing bonds. For example, from this year's 100,000,000,000 about the issue of treasury bonds next year to the 200,000,000,000 ~ 250,000,000,000. This can be a matter of fact all government (including central and local) financial strength of the economy to stimulate a further increase from 0.4 to 0.6 percentage points. He said that from a long-term institutional innovation, it is desirable to amend the budget law, local governments began to allow conditional direct bonds, making the future of the debt situation of the local government more transparent, but also from the legal to create local government can make use of its fiscal policy Economic cycle management space. In addition, international and domestic economic trends facing great uncertainty, the economic situation in the second half of next year may continue to deteriorate, should be ready in the second half of next year's supplementary budget plan for the Central, where necessary, re-emerge. View Domestic brokerage huge differences macro forecast cautious attitude In an interview with reporters learned that overseas investment bank on China's economy next year's pessimistic forecast in the domestic macro-economic studies in people have had obvious differences, the Pacific Academy of Macroeconomic Research of the Securities latest report immediately to amend the agency's previous judge, and overseas Investment bank's report very close to the point of view. The report even less than that next year, and so on, the end of this year's national GDP growth rate should fall to below 8.5 percent for the security of economic growth, the Government should implement a more active fiscal policy, and that the substantial depreciation of the yuan. But most of the domestic brokerage research fellow at the macro-attitude is still cautious, GF Securities researcher Dr. Liu Zhaohui macro view, based on the assumption that the judge is easy, but the real economy should be run in a number of factors. He said that next year the economy downward pressure is the fact that, but the end of last year, no one anticipated the current economic performance so bad; In his view, confidence is an important economic impact of external factors, to restore confidence in the economy depends on the internal trends and External regulation and control policy of balance of power in the current national policy to rescue the market introduction of the frequency and level to determine the future of China's economy is faced with significant uncertainty, for better or for worse currently difficult to predict.