Financial shock waves of the tsunami continues to spread to the U.S. real economy, the stock market's optimism has already begun in the United States to take root in the hearts of fund managers. According to well-known financial magazine "Barron" BigMoney survey, 50% of fund managers surveyed chose the good or very good now and the middle of next year's stock market, only 17 percent pessimistic, with as many as 69% of fund Managers believe the stock will be the 2009 best-performing assets. And despite the introduction of non-stop at home and abroad to the rescue package, the domestic fund for the fourth quarter at home and abroad confused and worried about the macroeconomic environment. Fund for China's economy will maintain a long-term development no objection, but in the short term the market is bottoming out, the existence of the value of the investment, but have differences, the majority of the Fund believes that short-term memory in the risk of the strategy is still the main defense. U.S. fund Over the next 12 months on a large scale Zengcang to 75% According to the Oriental Securities provided an analysis of the report, the United States well-known financial magazine "Barron" spring and autumn every year have to be BigMoney survey, the approximately 70 officers from all over the nation's fund managers to accept the survey. Their American real economy in the near future the situation is not good, almost all the economic recession that the United States and the inevitable decline in the rate of corporate profits, and also to the global spread of the crisis. 60% of people think the recession will last a year or 18 months, "the world's other nations are not struggling to solve their own financial crisis, is heavily dependent on the U.S. economy to promote their export-oriented Economic growth. "A fund manager writes. However, the stock market does not need to get better, and other economic data will be strong, this is the consensus of the vast majority of fund managers. Their prediction is that by the end of the Dow closed at 10,642 points, the point than it is now up 14% (1317), in 2008 the whole year, down 25%. They are the two other indexes also optimistic forecast to rebound by the end of S & P 1141-point level (up 18% over now, the whole year, down 22%), Nasdaq will be the end of the year rose to 2013 points (up 17% better than the current full-year drop of 25%). Fund managers for the middle of next year's estimated that the market is a very good: the Dow to 11,621 red, 1247 S & P, Nasdaq reach 2231 points. Therefore, stock holdings would be the vast majority of fund managers to choose their stock positions this spring from the 71% reduction in the level of 67% now, but in the future will be a year of large-scale Zengcang 12 months, they put in Shares on the proportion of the assets of more than 75%. "I'm like a child into a candy shop, dazzling, do not know what a good buy." Charge of 75,000,000 U.S. dollars of assets David sighed. The desire to purchase from the current valuation of the stock price is too low, the stock valuation has dropped to a 5-year low of 62% of the value of that fund managers have been under-estimated that the value of the stock overvalued, while only 7% to .2000 In 2002, the stock market has also been cut, from 1973 to 1975 there have been down 48%, from a historical point of view in the light, dark times are over, the S & P has fallen to 12 times earnings ratio of static, the The valuation of the past 20 years is the most attractive. In addition cash to buy into the market indicators also support the expected rebound: U.S. money market funds in total on September 30 to reach 3,400,000,000,000 U.S. dollars, the total value of shares in the same period was 13.3 trillion, the mobility of capital stock accounted for 25% of the total market value, The late 1980s, as long as the money market fund assets reached 11% of the market will rise at least 12%. Adhere to the pessimism of the investigation is still accounted for 17% of the share, and 33% of fund managers to remain neutral, but even the most pessimistic people who did not predict the market will be huge fall, it appears that the U.S. real economy and corporate profitability 1:00 It also can not see signs of improvement. CMO point of view Financial tsunami has brought cheap assets U.S. stock market is still covered with dark clouds, CMO leader JeremyGrantham has already seen the first line of the sun behind the clouds. The financial tsunami is of positive significance for Grantham is to bring cheap assets, he believed that in the past 20 years, the high valuation of the stock (not just U.S. stocks) has finally become cheap enough, but also cheaper. Grantham is assumed that the fair value calculation of the normal rate of earnings and profits derived from normal, calculated severe recession that may arise in the scope of profitability, and then find out the rate of return based on the framework of the history of emerging Urban multiples of profitability. In a rational market, low profitability and high-earnings ratio should be multiplied, and vice versa. Grantham calculate the S & P 500's fair value estimate for the 975, taking into account the extreme economic slump, the rate of 40% of fallen too far, the point should be about 585. Finally, he concluded that this year, two years, S S & P 600 index may point to the 800-point rebound in the bottom of the range. (Huang Rui Min) ■ China Fund Optimistic about the domestic economy to see the stock market space In the long run, most of the funds that China has the ability to overcome this financial crisis. China's huge domestic market and have not yet lost "demographic dividend", "quality of the dividend" remains at a high economic potential of a strong foundation for growth. If the global economic slowdown will help to the resources of the type of commodity prices and the introduction of Chinese advanced technology to China in the next few years will be the historic opportunity brought about by economic development. But the fund in the stock market next year will take their differences, most of the funds that the stock market in the fourth quarter and next year will oscillation, A shares bottomed out it still takes time. "At the bottom of the long-term formation and still need to confirm sufficient time and patience," Hua, China, the South's major fund companies that, taking into account the global economy filled with "fear of recession," and this round of adjustment compared to a pre-cycle May be more complex and long-term. "Premature and stock holdings of assets will bring losses," the sea in that fund, the patient's clear trend is the best strategy. Fund returns Da strategy fund managers Zhou Jian-chun said that in the fourth quarter and next year the market is likely to bottom stage, although he thought the international market and the macro-economic uncertainties remain, but the basic policy of relaxation of the conditions in place, and began to relax signs The market has been attractive, banks, property stocks are likely to occur as a result of the policy stage and the opportunity to relax. There are also funds for the current optimistic about the market. Impact on the stock market there are four factors: corporate profits, stock supply and demand, valuation and investor confidence. The rich countries that fund, A-share market stabilized in the fourth quarter is expected to stabilize. Surface of the funds, or the central bank will take the initiative to launch or increase the reserve ratio down, the financial savings from the bank account factors such as the release; market valuation into the low-risk area and began attractive; stock supply and demand in the central rate is expected to shareholders overweight , It may be a certain turn for the better. Golden Eagle Fund of the report's release that the current valuation of the stock market has gradually entered the bottom line for the region, the layout is now next year after a major investment phase, the structural opportunities for the stock market began to show.
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